Trump’s Tariffs On India Trigger Bearish Signals For Nifty: Export-Facing Sectors To Bear The Brunt, Says SEBI RA

United States President Donald Trump announced a 25% tariff, along with an additional penalty, on imports from India. In a post on Truth Social on Wednesday, he slammed India for maintaining “among the highest tariffs in the world”. He also criticized the country’s continued purchases of Russian energy and military hardware.

The announcement of a 25% tariff, along with additional penalties, has created a fresh overhang for global markets, and the Nifty index is no exception, said SEBI-registered analyst Mayank Singh Chandel.

In the near term, the sentiment leans bearish, especially for sectors heavily exposed to U.S. exports such as pharma, auto, IT services, and textiles. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs), already net sellers in recent weeks, may remain cautious, adding to downside pressure, Chandel said.

India’s macro fundamentals, strong domestic flows, corporate earnings, and fiscal stability, remain supportive over the longer horizon. If FIIs re-enter after global clarity emerges, a sharp recovery cannot be ruled out, Chandel added.

Sectorally, export-heavy names may remain under pressure, while banks, FMCG, infra, and defense, being more domestically oriented, could remain relatively resilient.

Nifty: What Next?

On the technical front, the Nifty index continues to trade below its 20-day and 50-day exponential moving averages (EMA), displaying a weak chart structure with lower highs and lows. The 24,900 –25,000 zone has turned into a strong resistance area, where supply has capped gains multiple times.

Meanwhile, 24,649 - 24,600 acted as support during the previous session, offering a temporary bounce. However, a break below 24,649 could open the path toward 24,500 and even 23,800, a key support from May.

The relative strength index (RSI) is around 43, indicating weak momentum, he said.

However, despite the potential short-term decline, the medium-term structure remains intact. The broader uptrend in Nifty stays valid unless 24,000 - 24,200 is breached on a closing basis, Chandel stated.

He recommended caution and asked traders to avoid aggressive long positions unless Nifty clears 24,900 - 25,000 with conviction.

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