Tariff Cuts Are The ‘Single Most Possible Deliverable’ From Trump-Xi Talks, Says Jefferies: AI Chips, Rare Earths Relief Unlikely

• Jefferies called the proposed Board of Trade the “single most possible deliverable,” potentially opening the door to broader tariff reductions.
• The firm added that Boeing and medical-device makers could benefit from renewed trade commitments.
• It said agricultural and U.S. energy exporters could also see support.

President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are set to meet Thursday, but Jefferies analysts said investors should not expect the talks to resolve two major market overhangs – AI chip export controls and rare-earth supplies.

In a note to investors cited by Barrons, Jefferies said the “single most possible deliverable” from Thursday’s talks is the Trump administration’s plan for a Board of Trade to oversee reduced tariffs across a range of goods.

The framework would extend the tariff-cutting approach the two countries have used since their meeting in Busan last October, when Trump reduced tariffs on Chinese imports to 47% from 57% in exchange for eased rare-earth restrictions and resumed soybean purchases.

The meeting, Xi's first Washington visit in a decade, caps a week of preparatory talks between Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, and their Chinese counterparts covering trade, AI, and critical minerals. 

Who Could Benefit From Trump-Xi Meeting?

Jefferies flagged Boeing (BA) and medical-device makers as potential beneficiaries, pointing to recent comments from Greer as encouraging. BA stock edged 0.25% higher in pre-market trade on Wednesday. On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around the airplane manufacturer trended in ‘bullish’ territory over the past day.

China had previously pledged to buy more than 200 Boeing aircraft and increase U.S. agricultural purchases by $17 billion annually under the May framework. Agricultural companies tied to soybean exports, including Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) and Bunge (BG), along with U.S. energy exporters, could also benefit if those commitments are reaffirmed.

ADM stock and BG stock edged around 0.20% higher in pre-market trade, while retail sentiment around both of them trended in ‘neutral’ territory over the past day.

AI Chips And Rare Earths Remain Off The Table

Jefferies does not expect Thursday’s meeting to produce meaningful movement on semiconductors or rare earths, which remain closely tied to national-security concerns in both countries.

That leaves chipmakers with significant China exposure, including Nvidia (NVDA), AMD (AMD) and Qualcomm (QCOM), without an expected catalyst from the talks. Rare-earth producer MP Materials (MP) is similarly outside Jefferies’ expected list of beneficiaries.

NVDA stock traded flat in pre-market trade, while QCOM and AMD shares edged 0.40% lower. MP stock edged around 0.12% higher.

Read also: Trump UN Speech: US President Signals Potential Iran Deal After Midterms, But Also Urges Nations For Tehran’s Complete Economic Isolation

For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.