TSLA Stock Rises Overnight: Analyst Sees Rebound This Week After EV Delivery Surge, But Calls Stock ‘Fully-Priced’

• Black expects TSLA to rebound this week as Wall Street raises Q2 and FY26 estimates.
• Tesla delivered 480,126 vehicles in Q2, up 25% year over year, while energy deployments rose 41%.
• Morgan Stanley kept an ‘Equal Weight’ rating and $415 target, while Morningstar raised fair value to $450.

Shares of Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) rose 1% overnight late Sunday as investors weighed a sharp second-quarter (Q2) delivery rebound against an analyst warning that the stock still looks “fully-priced.”

TSLA stock rose 4% last week, snapping a two-week losing streak despite a 7% drop on Thursday. 

Gary Black Sees TSLA Rebound

Gary Black, managing director of The Future Fund, said on X that he expects Tesla stock to rebound this week as Wall Street revises estimates after the EV maker’s stronger-than-expected delivery report. Tesla reported 480,126 global vehicle deliveries in Q2, up 25% from the same period last year. The company also said energy deployments grew 41%, extending momentum in a business that had already been growing quickly while auto sales slowed.

The second-quarter rebound followed a 6.3% delivery gain in the first quarter, which was still Tesla’s second-worst sales period since 2022.

“I expect TSLA stock to rebound this week as the sell-side climbs over one another to increase 2Q and FY’26 earnings ests,” Black said, adding that higher estimates “could boost TSLA price targets.” Still, Black said that the stock trades at a 2026 price-to-earnings multiple of over 200x, compared with expected long-term earnings per share (EPS) growth of about 35% for 2027-2032, leaving it at a 6x PEG ratio. That, he said, “continues to suggest TSLA is fully priced.”

Black also said that Tesla’s Q2 delivery strength may have been driven more by rising gasoline prices than excitement around autonomy. He said that the average price of a gallon of gas climbed from $2.98 before the U.S.-Iran war to $3.86 over the July 4 weekend, after peaking at $4.56 in June. 

TSLA Targets Rise After Q2 Beat

Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco said Tesla’s Q2 deliveries beat sell-side consensus by 18% and marked the company’s highest auto growth rate since the third quarter of 2023. The firm maintained an ‘Equal Weight’ rating and a $415 price target on Tesla, implying a 6% upside from the current levels. 

Morningstar also raised its fair value estimate for “narrow-moat” Tesla to $450 from $425 after the report, saying deliveries were nearly 20% above the company-compiled consensus. The new estimate implies a 14% upside from the last close. The firm said it was “surprised by the July 2 selloff,” though it still viewed the stock as fairly valued and in '3-star territory.'

Tesla AI Push Drives Bull Case 

Morningstar said Tesla’s full self-driving (FSD) software is “starting to be approved for use by multiple European countries,” which it expects will support delivery growth in Europe. The firm also said that higher deliveries should lift automotive gross profit margins.

Tesla’s broader AI push remains central to the long-term bull case. Morningstar said “the majority” of its Tesla valuation comes from AI software and robotics ventures, with robotaxi accounting for 35%, FSD software subscriptions nearly 20%, and Optimus humanoid robot sales and subscriptions nearly 30% of its fair value estimate.

Over the weekend, Tesla Robotaxi said on X that its service is now available in Miami, posting, “What’s up with Miami? Robotaxi now available in Miami.” Tesla also introduced the Model Y Long Wheelbase in the U.S. and Puerto Rico last week, adding a six-seat layout, expanded cabin space, 325 miles of estimated range and support for FSD Supervised with integrated Grok AI.

Tesla will report full second-quarter earnings on July 22, when investors will be watching for updates on margins, robotaxi expansion, FSD, Cybercab, Semi production and the company’s AI roadmap.

How Do Retail Traders Feel About TSLA?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for TSLA was ‘bullish’ amid ‘high’ message volume.

One user said, “Retail will try to pump this back up and the market will happily take their money. Those delivery numbers were heavily engineered through profit destruction. Thats why the stock took such a big hit.”

Another user said, “since they added Miami this weekend to the Robotaxi service and production is ramping of the Robotaxi specific vehicle I think we’re gonna see him a large increase in the actual Robotaxi handling these cities, and maybe some expansion of the areas the first major leg in RoboTaxi expansion”

So far this year, Tesla's stock has lagged its "Magnificent Seven" peers, making it the group's second-worst performer, with a 13% loss. 

For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.

Read Next: SLS Stock Notches 3-Week Winning Run: MassMutual Opens Tiny Stake Ahead Of Key AML Readout