TSLA Q2 Deliveries May Miss Estimates, But Cantor Says AI, Robotics, Chips Could Drive 'Transformational' 2026

• Cantor reiterated an ‘Overweight’ rating on Tesla ahead of its Q2 delivery update, expected this week.
• The brokerage sees energy storage deployments beating expectations at 15.7 GWh versus consensus of 13.9 GWh.
• Cantor called 2026 a “transformational year” as Tesla shifts deeper into autonomy, AI, robotics and chips.

Shares of Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) drew renewed attention late Monday ahead of its second-quarter delivery update after Cantor Fitzgerald projected deliveries below consensus but reiterated confidence in the company’s broader AI and robotics transition.

TSLA stock jumped over 8% on Monday to end at $411.84, logging its best day in over a year, boosted by the rollout of FSD V14 Lite to early-access Hardware 3 owners, giving older vehicles a long-awaited software upgrade. Shares are trading flat overnight late Monday at the time of writing. 

Cantor Sees TSLA Delivery Miss, But Stays Bullish

Cantor reiterated an ‘Overweight’ rating on Tesla ahead of its Q2 production and delivery update, expected this week. The firm expects Tesla to deliver 397,414 vehicles in Q2, below the company-compiled consensus of 408,609. However, Cantor sees energy storage deployments of 15.7 GWh, above consensus of 13.9 GWh.

Cantor noted that Tesla’s Q1 free cash flow was “particularly encouraging,” with the company reporting $1.44 billion versus consensus expectations for a $1.78 billion outflow. Still, Tesla raised its 2026 capex guide to more than $25 billion from $20 billion and now expects negative free cash flow for the rest of the year.

Despite the near-term pressure, Cantor said it expects 2026 to be a “transformational year” as Tesla moves deeper into autonomy, AI, robotics and chips. The firm said Cybercab, Tesla Semi and Megapack 3 remain on track for volume production this year, calling them “material catalysts.”

Cantor also highlighted Optimus, noting that Tesla’s first-generation robot production line is being installed in California, with a 1 million-unit annual capacity target. A second-generation line at Gigafactory Texas is being prepared for a longer-term 10 million-unit capacity target.

Wall Street Split On TSLA Deliveries

Analysts remain divided ahead of Tesla’s Q2 delivery print. Barclays expects 418,000 deliveries, above consensus, and has an ‘Equal Weight’ rating with a $360 price target, implying a 13% downside from current levels. The brokerage said Barclays said Tesla’s auto volumes have become “increasingly an afterthought,” with the stock driven mostly by robotaxi, Optimus and AI expectations.

JPMorgan cut its estimate to 420,000 from 430,500, also above consensus, citing “mixed” EV demand signals. It has a ‘Neutral’ rating and a $475 target, implying about 15.3% upside.The firm said near-term catalysts include auto sales trends, FSD approvals and progress on unsupervised robotaxi expansion.

RBC expects 405,000 deliveries, slightly below consensus, and has an ‘Outperform’ rating with a $475 target, also implying a 15% upside from last close. UBS also sees about 405,000 deliveries, below consensus, and has a ‘Neutral’ rating with a $364 target, implying about 12% downside. Additionally, Baird expects 392,900 deliveries, below consensus, and has an ‘Outperform’ rating with a $522 target, implying a 27% upside from current levels.

How Do Retail Traders Feel About TSLA?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for TSLA was ‘neutral’ amid ‘high’ message volume.

One user said, “$TSLA I think this will make a 2-3% pullback from close and then before or after the Q2 numbers it will run”

Another user said, “$TSLA  First leg of upward movement into earnings in a few weeks. Production and demand are increasing. Long track record of consistent profitability. Expect 500 soon.”

So far this year, Tesla's stock has lagged its "Magnificent Seven" peers, making it the group's third-worst performer, down about 8%. 

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