TSLA Stock Slides As Retail Turns Cautious Ahead Of Q3 Deliveries — But Musk’s Terafab Is Moving Fast

• Cantor Fitzgerald expects Q3 vehicle deliveries below a consensus cited in its note.
• JPMorgan cut its delivery forecast, citing weaker-than-expected results in China and the U.S.
• Tesla moved its outdoor Roadster demonstration from Oct.1 to Oct.15 due to severe weather in central Texas.

Shares of Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) posted their worst day in nearly a month on Monday as investors weighed cautious delivery forecasts ahead of the company’s third-quarter update, while chip industry researcher SemiAnalysis said construction of Elon Musk’s Terafab project was already underway.

TSLA stock closed Monday at $357.45, extending its losing streak to three sessions and leaving shares down 3% for September. 

Analysts Split On Deliveries As Tesla’s Q3 Update Nears

Cantor Fitzgerald reiterated its ‘Overweight’ rating and $485 price target on Tesla. The firm expects 421,758 vehicle deliveries in the third quarter, below the 448,679 Visible Alpha consensus cited in its note. It also forecasts about 15 gigawatt-hours of energy storage deployments, compared with the 17.1 gigawatt-hour consensus, and expects Tesla to provide an early update on production and deliveries ahead of its report slated for Friday. 

JPMorgan subsequently cut its Tesla price target to $415 from $445 and maintained a ‘Neutral’ rating. Citing weaker-than-expected deliveries in China and the U.S., the firm lowered its third-quarter forecast to 482,000 vehicles from 516,000. It also reduced its gross margin assumptions to reflect raw material inflation, incentives and interest rates. Based on July and August data, Tesla’s sales trends remained mixed across major regions, the firm said.

From current levels, Cantor’s target implies about 36% upside, while JPMorgan’s implies about 16%.

Terafab Moves Fast On Construction 

The delivery outlooks come amid an update on Terafab, Musk’s proposed semiconductor project intended to support AI efforts across his companies. SemiAnalysis said on X that the program launched in March, equipment orders were placed by April and concrete is now being poured at the site.

The research firm expects the first phase of the Grimes facility to be built as fast as, or faster than, the first phase of TSMC’s Arizona Fab 21. It projects equipment move-in around mid-2028 and volume production around mid-2030, and named ASML, KLA, Applied Materials and Lam Research among the likely major equipment beneficiaries. 

On Tesla’s July earnings call, Musk said Terafab was necessary to scale Optimus production because the company otherwise would not have enough AI chips. 

Tesla’s Roadster Calendar Slips, Semi Rollout Picks Up

Tesla’s product calendar also shifted on Monday when the company moved its outdoor Roadster demonstration from Oct.1 to Oct.15, citing severe weather forecasts for central Texas. The latest postponement extends the wait for a car first unveiled in 2017. 

Its Semi truck program, meanwhile, reached another delivery milestone last week. Tesla began handing trucks from its new production effort to an initial group of customers and reiterated its plan for 50,000 Semis a year at its Nevada plant, though it did not provide current production volumes or pricing. Cantor said that the Semi would still represent a small portion of Tesla’s overall fleet by year-end, with a high-volume robotaxi and Cybercab ramp taking priority over autonomous trucking.

How Do Retail Traders Feel About TSLA?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for TSLA dipped further with ‘neutral’ territory to 47/50 from a day ago amid a 12% rise in 24-hour message volumes.

One user said, “$TSLA Musky better pump the media blitz for the upcoming event that is now pushed back, he needs to quiet his skeptics”

Another user said, “$TSLA Tesla had 497,000 in deliveries Q3 last year.... 10% growth around 550,000 deliveries this Q..... sell now and get in cheaper, the math is horrible for this Q”

So far this year, Tesla's stock has lagged its "Magnificent Seven" peers, making it the group's worst performer, down about 21%. 

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