TSLA Stock Dips Premarket: Tesla Influencer Warns Selling Tesla For SpaceX IPO Could Be ‘Lose-Lose’ Trade

• A Tesla influencer warned against selling TSLA stock to chase the SpaceX IPO as retail investors may receive only tiny IPO allocations.
• SpaceX is reportedly targeting a Nasdaq listing under ticker SPCX at a valuation approaching $1.75 trillion.
• Tesla continues aggressively investing in AI, Optimus humanoid robots, Robotaxi and semiconductor infrastructure.

Shares of Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) slipped 1% in premarket trading on Tuesday as the looming SpaceX IPO sparked fresh debate across the retail investor community, with a prominent Tesla influencer warning that selling TSLA shares to chase the offering could become a “lose-lose” trade. 

TSLA stock slid 3% on Monday, logging its third straight session of losses. 

SpaceX IPO Frenzy Grips Tesla Retail Investors

Excitement surrounding SpaceX’s imminent blockbuster IPO continues to intensify across the Tesla retail investor community, with some traders debating whether to rotate capital out of Tesla to gain exposure to Elon Musk’s rocket and AI empire.

A Tesla influencer, who goes by the name squawksquare with over 119,000 followers on X, said that retail investors attempting to sell Tesla shares to buy into the SpaceX IPO could ultimately end up disappointed due to limited retail allocation.

“It's going to be so oversubscribed that there will likely be very very very limited retail allowed or allocated shares,” the influencer said, adding that even investors requesting larger allocations could end up receiving only “2-3 shares if lucky.”

According to the influencer, many retail investors could potentially sell Tesla stock, expecting to secure meaningful SpaceX allocations, fail to receive enough IPO shares, and later end up buying Tesla back at higher prices after waiting through wash-sale rules, which can prevent investors from immediately repurchasing a stock if they want to claim a tax loss on the original sale. “Lose/lose. That's how markets work,” the influencer said. 

Squawksquare also predicted that while SpaceX shares could initially surge after listing, the stock may later “go down faster than the titanic.” The post was also reposted by Gary Black, managing partner at The Future Fund.

Retail Poll Shows Most Prefer Cash For SpaceX IPO

Meanwhile, Tesla influencer AleXandra Merz, who posts under the handle TeslaBoomerMama, conducted a poll on X asking traders how they planned to pay for potential SpaceX share purchases. 

Among 572 respondents, 69% said they planned to use available cash, 14% said they would sell Tesla shares, 12% said they would sell other holdings but not Tesla, while 5.4% said they planned to sell multiple positions including Tesla stock to fund SpaceX investments. 

The IPO is expected to deliver massive windfalls for early SpaceX backers. According to the Financial Times, hedge funds including D1 Capital Partners and Darsana Capital Partners could see their SpaceX stakes swell to $20 billion and $15 billion, respectively, if the company hits its targeted $1.75 trillion valuation.  

SpaceX IPO: An AI, Robotics Play

SpaceX is reportedly targeting a Nasdaq listing under the ticker SPCX at a valuation that could approach $1.75 trillion, potentially making it the largest IPO in market history. The company is also expected to seek r$75 billion in fresh capital as investor demand around AI infrastructure companies continues surging.

Retail excitement around SpaceX has intensified further as investors increasingly view the company as more than just a rocket and satellite business. Late Monday, CEO Elon Musk endorsed Nvidia’s Vera AI CPU platform after Nvidia confirmed that SpaceXAI was among the first organizations evaluating the system for advanced AI training.

The move reinforced expectations that SpaceX’s future growth could increasingly revolve around AI and robotics, alongside its aerospace and Starlink businesses.

Tesla Investors Continue Watching AI Push

The debate over selling Tesla shares for SpaceX exposure also comes as Tesla itself continues investing aggressively in AI, autonomous driving and robotics. Earlier this year, Musk said both Tesla and SpaceX would continue ordering Nvidia chips “at scale” even as Tesla advances development of its own AI processors.

Tesla has simultaneously accelerated work around Optimus humanoid robots, Robotaxi systems and its “Terafab” semiconductor manufacturing initiative to support future AI demand. Morgan Stanley previously estimated Tesla could eventually require more than 200 million AI chips annually if Optimus production scales successfully.

How Do Retail Traders Feel About TSLA?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for Tesla was ‘neutral’ amid a 321% surge in 24-hour message volumes.

One user said, “Based on institutional valuation models and historical stock-dilution mechanics, a formal SpaceX-Tesla merger announcement would likely cause Tesla’s stock price to fall by 30% to 45% within the first few weeks of the news.”

Another user said, “a SpaceX-Tesla merger would give Elon Musk the perfect corporate smokescreen to escape, bury, or radically redefine the unfulfilled promises he has made to Tesla investors.”

So far this year, TSLA stock has lagged its “Magnificent Seven” peers, making it the group’s second-worst performer, with a 9% decline.     

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