MetroStockTrader
$NRGV
Last night, I did a little research with Chat to figure out an appropriate valuation for NRGV based on their own published 4-year plan for EBITDA expansion. I used an ultra-conservative approach. We took the share count up from 182M shares (current) to 250M shares (increase from warrants, convertibles and SBC), AND we based our modeling on only HALF of management’s EBITDA projections. Also, we took an industry standard 14x EBITDA valuation and cut that in half. Like I said, VERY conservative. Here’s what Chat came up with…🔥🔥🔥
If NRGV eventually generates only $900M EBITDA — half management’s $1.8B target — and receives just a 7× EBITDA multiple:
EV = $6.3B
Even assuming ~$500M net debt at that point:
Equity value ≈ $5.8B
÷ 250M shares =
~$23/share
versus ~$3 today.
That’s roughly 7–8× upside despite assuming ~37% dilution from today’s share count AND only 50% achievement of management’s EBITDA target.
9
