US Stocks Poised To Retreat From Record Highs Despite Signals Of Trump Tariff Deadline Extension — Strategist Says Uncertainty ‘Disappearing Fast’

U.S. stocks may show signs of jadedness after last week’s record run, which culminated in the S&P 500 Index reaching a new peak. Nervous investors may prefer to wait and watch as the July 9 deadline for the resumption of President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs kicks in.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick have separately said that countries have until Aug. 1 to negotiate bilateral trade deals, with the former stating that the Trump administration would apply maximum pressure tactics to make trading partners come around.

As of 12:07 a.m. ET on Sunday, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures fell about 0.40% each, and the Dow futures fell nearly  0.30%. Futures tied to the small-cap-focused Russell 2000 Index fell a steeper 0.54%.

Stocks closed the holiday-shortened week ended July 3 on an upbeat note, thanks to the June monthly payrolls report that came in stronger than expected and the resumption of trade talks between the U.S. and Canada after the latter decided to roll back a “Digital Services Tax” applied to big tech companies.

Traders also took heart from Trump signaling a trade deal with Vietnam. 

The broader S&P 500 Index hit a record intraday and closing highs of 6,284.65 and 6,279.35, respectively, on Thursday.

For the week, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) ETF, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that track the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 Indexes, climbed 1.7% and 1.5%, respectively.

The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (DIA) and iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) added 2.3% and 3.5%, respectively.

The unfolding week’s economic calendar is relatively light, with the minutes of the June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, the weekly jobless claims data, and a few Fed speeches among the key data points.

As a new week unfolds, a fund manager expressed confidence that the rally will have a further leg up. In a note to clients released over the weekend, Louis Navellier said the passing of the “one, big beautiful” tax bill should bolster consumer confidence, as it would put more money into consumers’ hands. 

The fund manager said, looking ahead, the “uncertainty surrounding the stock market is disappearing fast.”  

“Not only is the S&P 500 forecasted to post another round of double-digit earnings growth on a capitalization-weighted basis, but the Fed is now also expected to cut key interest rates in the upcoming months to provide a ‘turbo boost.’”

Carson Group Chief Investment Strategist Ryan Detrick sees a “sweet spot for the rest of the year.”

Whenever the S&P 500 is up between 5% and 10% at the midpoint of the year, the final six months have been higher 13 out of the 15 times, and the whole year has been up 14 out of the 15 times, with the average returns being better than average as well, he said.

Crude oil futures fell moderately in early Asian trading on Monday after OPEC+ agreed to a bigger-than-expected supply boost over the weekend. Gold also lost its glitter, as the yellow metal traded down nearly a percent at around $3,320 an ounce.

The 10-year U.S. Treasury note was nearly flat at the 4.33% level, and the U.S. dollar gained some ground, although it has lost almost 11% against a basket of major currencies this year.

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