USO, BATL, EONR Surge Premarket As Oil Heads For Biggest Gain In Over Three Decades — Barclays Flags Gulf War-Scale Risk

• BATL jumped 8%, USO gained 3%, EONR and TPET added 3% each, while INDO rose over 1% in premarket trading.
• Oil is on track for its biggest monthly gain since 1990 after the near-total disruption of the Strait of Hormuz removed millions of barrels per day from global supply.
• The U.S. continued its diplomatic outreach even as 5,000 Marines and an additional 82nd Airborne personnel were deployed, and tanker security risks persisted.

Major oil stocks and index funds climbed in premarket trading on Thursday as crude rebounded after conflicting signals from Washington and Tehran on efforts to end the war that has shuttered the Strait of Hormuz and choked off large volumes of global oil supply.

Battalion Oil (BATL) rose about 8% in premarket trading, while the United States Oil Fund (USO) gained roughly 3%. EON Resources (EONR) and Trio Petroleum (TPET) each added around 3%, while Indonesia Energy (INDO) advanced more than 1%.

Oil Heads For Biggest Monthly Gain Since 1990

Brent crude climbed toward $105 per barrel after falling more than 2% on Wednesday, while West Texas Intermediate traded near $93, as Tehran rejected U.S. diplomatic overtures and instead pushed conditions including sovereign control over the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s parliament is also reportedly preparing legislation that would charge security transit fees for vessels passing through the waterway.

The global benchmark is now on track for its largest monthly gain since 1990, as the near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz has removed millions of barrels per day from global supply and sent product prices from diesel to jet fuel sharply higher.

Hormuz Risks Deepen Despite Diplomatic Signals

U.S. President Donald Trump said the U.S. remains in talks with Tehran and hopes to end the conflict “in the coming weeks,” even as Iran rejected proposals and continued setting conditions tied to control of the waterway.

The Pentagon has reportedly ordered the deployment of two Marine Expeditionary Units, totaling roughly 5,000 troops, along with additional personnel from the 82nd Airborne Division.

Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said Trump “does not bluff and he is prepared to unleash hell,” while traders also monitored a separate escalation risk after a drone targeted a Turkish tanker carrying Urals crude near Istanbul.

Iran Pushes Transit Fees Amid Strike Risk

MUFG said, “While the U.S. continues to push for negotiations, Iran has rejected proposals and is considering imposing transit fees on vessels,” reinforcing Tehran’s grip over the critical shipping route.

Deutsche Bank said the market’s attention is increasingly turning toward the end of Trump’s five-day postponement of potential strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure this weekend, warning that expectations for near-term de-escalation may be premature. The bank said a “big” factor behind the latest price rebound is Iran’s continued rejection of U.S. messages about progress toward a ceasefire.

Barclays Flags Historic Oil Supply Risk

Barclays said a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz could remove 13 million to 14 million barrels per day from global supply, calling the disruption the largest geopolitical shock to energy markets since the 1990 Gulf War, Reuters reported.

The bank said supply elasticity is structurally weaker than during past shocks, with OPEC+ spare capacity under-delivering and non-OPEC production growth steadily decelerating after years of under-investment, increasing the market’s sensitivity to disruption.

The International Energy Agency estimates global oil demand this year at roughly 104-105 million barrels per day, underscoring the scale of the imbalance if flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain constrained.

Barclays said traffic through the Strait could normalize by early April in its base-case scenario, consistent with Brent averaging around $85 per barrel in 2026, but warned that disruptions lasting into late spring could push prices toward $110.

How Did Stocktwits Users React?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment was ‘bearish’ for USO, INDO, TPET and EONR, with message volume ‘normal’ for USO, ‘extremely low’ for INDO and TPET, and ‘low’ for EONR, while BATL saw ‘neutral’ sentiment amid ‘low’ message volume.

Over the past year, USO has gained 52%, INDO is up 35%, BATL has surged over 300%, and EONR has risen 71%, while TPET is down 41%. 

For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.

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