USO, BATL, TPET Jump Premarket As US-Iran Talks Collapse Triggers Hormuz Risks Again — Analysts Flag $140 Oil Scenario

• U.S. Central Command said enforcement of maritime restrictions tied to Iranian exports would begin at 10 a.m. ET Monday.
• Saudi Arabia restored full capacity on its East-West pipeline and resumed output from the Manifa field.
• Analysts said the blockade threatens roughly 1.7-2 million barrels per day of Iranian supply and could push the global crude deficit above 5 million barrels per day.

Major oil stocks and index funds jumped in premarket trading on Monday after the U.S. announced plans to blockade vessels linked to Iranian ports following the collapse of weekend talks with Tehran, pushing crude back above $100.

Shares of Battalion Oil (BATL) rose 30% in premarket trading, while Trio Petroleum (TPET) gained 18%, EON Resources (EONR) climbed 14%, Indonesia Energy (INDO) advanced 8%, and the United States Oil Fund (USO) added 7%.

Hormuz Blockade Pushes Oil Back Above $100

Oil surged after the U.S. said it would begin blockading vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz that had stopped at Iranian ports or were headed there, following the collapse of weekend talks with Tehran in Islamabad. 

West Texas Intermediate crude rose 7.1% to $103, while Brent crude climbed 6.7% to $102.

U.S. Central Command said enforcement of the maritime restrictions would begin at 10 a.m. ET on Monday, targeting the shipping of Iranian exports without applying to all traffic through the waterway. U.S. President Donald Trump said the action would be “very effective,” while also warning that Washington could resume limited strikes if Iran resisted the move, The Wall Street Journal noted.

Iran’s military adviser to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Mohsen Rezaee, said Tehran “will not allow” the embargo and warned the country retains leverage to respond.

On Sunday, two empty crude tankers attempted to transit the Strait of Hormuz into the Persian Gulf but made last-minute U-turns as U.S.-Iran peace negotiations broke down, according to a Bloomberg report.

OPEC Report In Focus After Hormuz Disruptions

With traffic through Hormuz constrained, alternative export corridors have become increasingly important. Saudi Arabia said it restored full capacity through the East-West pipeline to the Red Sea port of Yanbu and resumed output from the Manifa field after earlier Iranian strikes disrupted operations.

Meanwhile, the producer group OPEC is scheduled to release its monthly market report later Monday, which may provide updated estimates of supply disruptions across the Middle East's energy infrastructure.

Hormuz Risks Push $140 Oil Scenario Back In Focus

Commonwealth Bank of Australia said the blockade directly threatens roughly 1.7 million barrels per day of Iranian crude exports that passed through the Strait last month. The firm added that physical-delivery benchmarks have already seen oil trade above $140 per barrel in forward scenarios, according to a Wall Street Journal report.

Additionally, TD Securities said the restrictions could remove close to 2 million barrels per day of Iranian supply that had continued to flow despite earlier conflict-related disruptions.

“This would increase crude oil deficit to over 5 million barrels per day,” TD Securities said, adding that the timeline to record-low onshore inventories could shift forward to July rather than August.

Analysts Say Hormuz Risk Is Structural And Real

Phillip Nova senior market analyst Priyanka Sachdeva said, “The market reaction underscores a simple but powerful reality: Hormuz risk is not theoretical; it is structural, and it is real,” she said.

However, ING said prices have not risen any further because diplomatic engagement has not fully broken down. “At least the Iranian delegation showed up in Islamabad, and the alternative of renewed destruction of energy infrastructure in the region has so far been avoided,” they said.

How Do Retail Traders Feel About Energy Stocks?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment toward USO and INDO was ‘extremely bearish’, though message activity diverged with ‘high’ volume in USO and ‘low’ volume in INDO. Sentiment toward TPET was also ‘bearish’ amid ‘low’ message volume, while EONR drew ‘extremely bearish’ sentiment alongside ‘extremely low’ activity. 

In contrast, BATL stood out as the only name with ‘bullish’ sentiment amid ‘high’ message volume.

Over the past year, BATL has led the group with gains of 183%, followed by EONR, up 89%, and USO, up 80%. INDO posted a more gain of 5%, while TPET lagged peers, declining 37% over the same period.

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