USO, INDO, TPET Climb Premarket: Retail Bets Against Iran Ceasefire Before Trump Deadline, Analysts Warn Massive Supply Hit

• Crude held above $110 ahead of Trump’s deadline tied to reopening the Strait of Hormuz in the conflict’s sixth week.
• USO, INDO, TPET and EONR each gained about 2%, while BATL edged marginally higher before the open.
• Analysts said crude is no longer trading traditional supply-demand signals, warning that infrastructure damage could sideline barrels for months.

Major oil stocks and index funds rose in premarket trading on Tuesday as crude held above $110 ahead of U.S. President Donald Trump’s deadline to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with traders bracing for escalation risks in the sixth week of the conflict.

The United States Oil Fund (USO), Indonesia Energy (INDO), Trio Petroleum (TPET) and EON Resources (EONR) each rose about 2%, while Battalion Oil (BATL) edged marginally higher in premarket trading.

Oil Holds Above $110 Ahead Of Trump Deadline

Brent crude traded near $111.41 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate hovered around $114.98, extending gains after rising for a third consecutive session as markets reacted to renewed threats targeting Iranian infrastructure if U.S. demands are not met before Tuesday evening’s deadline.

Trump said negotiations with Iran are “going well” but warned the U.S. military could destroy Iranian bridges and power plants if transit through the waterway is not restored. Iran has warned it would respond to such strikes by escalating attacks on regional energy infrastructure.

A retail poll on Stocktwits showed that 77% of respondents do not expect the U.S. and Iran to reach a ceasefire before the deadline, compared with 23% who expect a deal, based on 9,300 votes, underscoring skepticism among traders as negotiations remain uncertain ahead of the cutoff.

Currently in its sixth week, the conflict has already triggered one of the largest disruptions to global oil markets in recent times. Saudi Arabia also raised its May official selling price to Asia to a record $19.5 above regional benchmarks.

Oil Now Trading Geopolitics, Not Fundamentals

Analysts said the latest escalation signals that crude is no longer reacting primarily to traditional supply-demand fundamentals. Priyanka Sachdeva, analyst at Phillip Nova, said that infrastructure damage could sideline barrels for months even if hostilities ease, according to a report by The Wall Street Journal.

“Oil is no longer trading supply and demand; it’s trading deadlines and detonations,” Sachdeva said, adding that structural tightness is building beneath the geopolitical headlines and that even Washington’s “energy dominance” cannot fully offset lost Middle East supply in the near term.

Supply Losses Could Reach 1.8 Billion Barrels

Investment research firm HFI Research said the global oil market may already be approaching a critical threshold if disruptions tied to the Strait of Hormuz persist, estimating the world is currently losing roughly 11 million barrels per day of crude flows during the outage.

The firm said cumulative supply losses could reach 1.2 billion barrels under an April ceasefire scenario, 1.5 billion barrels if disruptions extend through May, and 1.8 billion barrels if the conflict continues into June, warning that the market’s breaking point may arrive sooner than many analysts expect.

U.S. commercial crude inventories are projected to remain near 435 million barrels by the end of June, only modestly above operational minimum levels, while Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases are expected to cushion part of the drawdown. 

How Do Retail Traders Feel About Energy Stocks?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment toward USO was ‘bearish’ amid ‘normal’ message volume and toward TPET was ‘bearish’ amid ‘extremely low’ message volume. Sentiment toward BATL was ‘bullish’ amid ‘high’ message volume, while INDO and EONR were ‘extremely bearish’ amid ‘extremely low’ message volume.

Over the past year, BATL surged 253%, EONR climbed 111%, USO advanced 105%, and INDO rose 52%, while TPET declined 52% over the same period.

For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.

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