USO, TPET, BATL Plunge Premarket As US-Iran Ceasefire Drags Oil Back Below $100 — Analysts See Lingering Shipping Risks

• Crude dropped below $100 per barrel following a two-week U.S.-Iran ceasefire tied to reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
• Brent crude fell 16% to $94, while West Texas Intermediate dropped 15% to $95.
• Analysts said the ceasefire reduces near-term escalation risks but leaves uncertainty around navigation and transit conditions through the Strait unresolved.

Major oil stocks and index funds slid in premarket trading on Wednesday after crude prices plunged below $100 a barrel, following the U.S. and Iran's agreement on a temporary ceasefire aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

The United States Oil Fund (USO) fell 11%, while Indonesia Energy (INDO) dropped 12%, Trio Petroleum (TPET) slid 26%, Battalion Oil (BATL) declined 24%, and EON Resources (EONR) fell 13% in premarket trading. 

Crude Falls Below $100 After US-Iran Ceasefire Deal

Brent crude dropped 16%, trading near $94 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate slid 15% to $95, marking one of the worst drops since the early phase of the conflict. The selloff followed a conditional two-week ceasefire agreement to restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which normally carries roughly one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas flows.

Trading activity surged immediately after the announcement, with roughly 240,000 Brent contracts changing hands in the first hour, far above typical early-session turnover, Bloomberg noted.

U.S. President Donald Trump said the pause in hostilities would allow a broader agreement “to be finalized and consummated,” provided Tehran restores safe transit through the waterway.

The near-closure of the strait during the conflict has already cut output from key Middle Eastern producers by more than 9 million barrels per day in April, according to U.S. government estimates. Over 800 vessels remain stranded across the region after weeks of disruption, according to a Bloomberg report.

Analysts Warn Shipping Uncertainty Remains

Analysts said the agreement eases the risk of immediate escalation but leaves uncertainty about how to navigate the Strait of Hormuz unresolved. Michelle Brouhard, head of policy and geopolitical risks at Kpler, said the ceasefire “has reinforced the Strait of Hormuz's role as both a strategic pressure point and a bargaining lever,” adding that a structured toll corridor mediated by Oman could generate $5 billion to $8 billion annually if formalized, Dow Jones Newswires reported.

Claus Vistesen, analyst at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said, “Despite the markets welcoming the cease-fire, Iran will still likely restrict traffic through the Strait of Hormuz,” adding that Tehran has learned it can apply “significant pressure on the U.S. via its control over the strait.”

Ceasefire Is First Step Toward Peace Deal

Commonwealth Bank of Australia said the ceasefire could mark an early step toward a broader resolution to the conflict, adding that progress toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz indicates “genuine movement toward a peace agreement.”

Meanwhile, Matt Britzman, senior analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, said: “The return of free-flowing traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, without any Iranian tolls or controls, feels essential if oil prices are going to start trending back toward levels we saw before the conflict began.”

Saxo Bank added that uncertainty around navigation rules, infrastructure damage assessments, and insurance constraints means supply chains “may take longer to normalize than the headline move in oil suggests.”

How Do Retail Traders Feel About Energy Stocks? 

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for USO and TPET was ‘bearish’, with USO seeing ‘high’ message volume and TPET ‘low’ message volume. Sentiment for INDO and EONR was ‘extremely bearish’ amid ‘extremely low’ message volume, while BATL stood out with ‘extremely bullish’ sentiment alongside ‘high’ message volume.

Over the past year, BATL surged 213%, while USO rose 109%, EONR gained 89%, and INDO climbed 58%, whereas TPET declined 50%.

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