USO, UCO, BATL, XOM Slip: Oil Dips Below $100 After Trump Says Iran Talks ‘Proceeding Nicely’

• Oil futures were trading below $100 a barrel on renewed hopes for a U.S.-Iran peace deal. 
• Major oil stocks and index funds declined overnight ahead of Tuesday.
• Robin Brooks, a Senior Fellow at The Brookings Institution and a former chief FX strategist and managing director at Goldman Sachs, thinks that oil prices will normalize as the critical Strait of Hormuz opens up.

Major oil stocks and index funds declined in the overnight session heading into Tuesday after U.S. President Donald Trump said negotiations with Iran “are proceeding nicely,” pushing crude below $100 a barrel.

Shares of the United States Oil Fund (USO) and ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil ETF (UCO) slipped 4.7% and 5.4% lower, even as Battalion Oil (BATL) fell more than 6% in the overnight session at the time of writing. Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) fell more than 1%, while Trio Petroleum Corp. (TPET) and Indonesia Energy Corp Ltd. (INDO) shares lost more than 2% each.

Oil Slips Below $100

Trump said in a post on Truth Social on Monday that negotiations with Iran “are proceeding nicely!” but added, “It will only be a Great Deal for all or, no Deal at all — Back to the Battlefront and shooting, but bigger and stronger than ever before — And nobody wants that!”

Oil futures were below $100 a barrel on hopes for a deal, with Brent crude futures expiring in July trading at around $98.12 a barrel at the time of writing, while WTI crude futures expiring in June slipped more than 5%, trading around $91.71 a barrel.

The comments come amid reports of an Iranian delegation traveling to Qatar for consultations with senior officials to negotiate a deal with the U.S. to end the war. A report from Al Jazeera has noted that Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and Central Bank Governor Abdolnaser Hemmati are in Doha to discuss sticking points for the potential deal that could end the U.S.-Israel war on Iran.

Trump had said earlier on Monday that an agreement with Iran must be “meaningful” for a deal to be reached. The president has insisted that Iran must give up its nuclear power for a deal, while Tehran has said that at this stage, Iran and the U.S. have not been “talking about the nuclear issue.”

Tensions Continue In The Strait Of Hormuz

Reports have also indicated that the U.S. and Iran are discussing a plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz roughly 30 days after a deal is finalized, with Iran expected to remove mines from the waterway to ensure safe maritime passage, according to Nikkei.

Meanwhile, the U.S. military carried out what it described as “self-defense strikes” in southern Iran, targeting Iranian missile installations and boats allegedly attempting to deploy mines in the strait.

What Is Wall Street Thinking?

Robin Brooks, a Senior Fellow at The Brookings Institution and a former chief FX strategist and managing director at Goldman Sachs, thinks oil prices will normalize as the critical waterway opens.

“It'll obviously take time for shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to normalize, but don't fall into the trap of thinking this means oil prices will stay high. Markets are forward-looking, so they'll price normalization long before it happens…” he said in a post on X.

Meanwhile, Mohamed El-Erian, Chief Economic Advisor at Allianz, noted oil’s slip below $100 a barrel, adding that prices would depend on peace deal negotiations and traffic flow through the strait.

“Brent crude is now trading well below $100 a barrel. Where this crucial price goes next will depend not only on whether the agreement is finalized but also on the details and what they imply for sustainability—particularly with respect to the return of free navigation through the Strait of Hormuz,” he said in a post on X.

However, Barclays has said that it expects Brent crude oil to be around $100 for 2026, while also warning that price risks are skewed higher. Meanwhile, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects Brent crude prices to average about $106 per barrel in May and June, citing expectations that global oil inventories will decline by roughly 8.5 million barrels per day during the second quarter of 2026.

The agency also said that increasing oil output from the Middle East is likely to push crude prices down to an average of $89 per barrel by the fourth quarter of 2026, with prices easing further to around $79 per barrel in 2027.

What’s Retail Saying About Energy Stocks?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment toward USO, BATL, and XOM was in the ‘bearish’ territory, while UCO sentiment was in the ‘bullish’ territory at the time of writing.

Message volumes were in the ‘high’ levels for UCO, while they were ‘normal’ for USO and XOM. Messages for BATL were ‘extremely low’ at the time of writing.

One user said, “The price of oil is showing you that Iran has nothing. Last week was a chance to sell above 100. This week above 90. Soon, Brent will be under 90. There are very few real oil bulls left in this market, it’s primarily retards. After the falling knife I may pick a spot to buy some oil, but it really is a dead trade.”

USO has more than doubled so far this year, while UCO has gained more than 145% so far in 2026. BATL shares have surged more than 58%, while XOM has gained by over 26% in the same time.

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