When Will Kevin Warsh Be Confirmed As Fed Chair? Here’s What Prediction Markets Bet On Trump’s Pick

• Bettors on Kalshi predicted the highest chance of Warsh being confirmed as chair before July 1, at 80%.
• Warsh reiterated the central bank’s independence at the Senate Banking Committee’s first hearing for his confirmation. 
• Warsh also deflected questions about his personal assets at the hearing.

Retail traders think the probability of Kevin Warsh, U.S. President Donald Trump's nominee for the next Federal Reserve chair, being confirmed before May 15 is slim, rather than later.

According to Kalshi voters, there’s a 28% chance that Warsh will be confirmed to the position before current Chair Jerome Powell’s term expires.

Meanwhile, Warsh came under severe scrutiny at the Senate Banking Committee’s first hearing for his confirmation as the next Federal Reserve chair on Tuesday.

What Prediction Markets Think

In response to a question titled “When will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?”, bettors on Kalshi predicted the highest chance of Warsh being confirmed as chair before July 1, at 80%. Another 67% predicted the confirmation was likely to come before June 1.

At the time of writing, bets on Kalshi totaled just under $1 million.

Warsh Insists On Fed Independence

Warsh reiterated the central bank’s independence at the hearing even as the president has repeatedly voiced his preference for an interest rate cut.

“The president never asked me to predetermine, commit, fix, decide on any interest rate decision in any of our discussions, nor would I ever agree to do so,” Warsh said at the hearing on Tuesday, adding that while most presidents tended to prefer lower rates, Trump “expresses it quite publicly, without surrogates or subterfuge, but presidents want lower rates.”

Warsh also deflected questions about his personal assets, including the $100 million he invested in Juggernaut Fund LP.

Meanwhile, U.S. equities climbed higher in Tuesday’s overnight trading sessions after Trump announced an extension of the ceasefire with Iran. At the time of writing, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), which tracks the S&P 500 index, was up 0.59%, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ) climbed 0.68%, and the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (DIA) was up 0.48%.

Retail sentiment on Stocktwits around the S&P 500 ETF was last in the ‘bullish’ territory.

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