Why Is NBIS Stock Soaring Over 10% In Overnight Trading?

• NBIS stock jumped in overnight trading, with the company’s market cap inching closer to market leader CoreWeave.
• Situational Awareness holds stakes in other neocloud companies such as CoreWeave and IREN.  
• Stocktwits sentiment for NBIS shifts to ‘bullish’ from ‘neutral.’

Nebius shares jumped 11% in overnight trading ahead of Thursday, after Leopold Aschenbrenner’s AI-focused hedge fund disclosed a major stake in the emerging neocloud company.

Situational Awareness LP disclosed that it owned 12.41 million Class A shares of Nebius, representing a 5.6% stake, making it one of the largest institutional investors in the company. At the stock’s last closing price, that stake is worth $2.6 billion. 

Nebius is now the fund’s largest holding, while its portfolio also includes stakes in Bloom Energy, SanDisk, CoreWeave, and IREN.

If the stock gains hold on Thursday, Nebius could overtake CoreWeave as the largest neocloud company by market capitalization. CoreWeave reported $2.1 billion in revenue last quarter and had a market value of $56.9 billion as of Wednesday, compared with Nebius’s $400 million in quarterly sales and $52.4 billion market capitalization at the last close. 

Aschenbrenner’s NBIS Stake Triggers Buzz

The development triggered significant chatter around the NBIS stock among traders on Stocktwits, X, and Reddit. “$NBIS Leopold buying in is about as bullish as you can get. LFG Nebians!” a Stocktwits user posted.

Another wrote: “This is one of those moments where positioning meets narrative. AI infrastructure + neocloud exposure + high-conviction institutional move… and the market just runs with it. Whether you’re bullish or skeptical, one thing is clear: this is a name the market is now forced to pay attention to.”

Still, some investors believed the rally could lose steam, given that NBIS had already surged sharply in recent months and Situational Awareness remained a relatively new fund. “Situational Awareness stake old story pump fades tomorrow, this old OpenAI researcher opens a new VC fund, nothing big burger,” remarked a user.

On Stocktwits, the retail sentiment for NBIS shifted to ‘bullish’ from ‘neutral’ the previous day, while message volume for the ticker jumped 212% in the last 24 hours.

What Is Situational Awareness LP’s Thesis?

Aschenbrenner is a former OpenAI Superalignment researcher and AI investor who became popular in 2024 after publishing “Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead,” a widely discussed essay predicting that AGI could arrive by around 2027 and trigger massive economic and geopolitical disruption. 

He launched Situational Awareness LP in 2024, an AI-focused hedge fund built on the thesis that rapid advances in AI will drive explosive demand for chips, data centers, electricity, and compute infrastructure.

Nebius is part of a new class of emerging neocloud companies that has attracted heightened investor interest amid booming demand for AI cloud infrastructure. The company has gained traction in recent months after securing large cloud contracts with Microsoft and Meta Platforms, as well as an equity investment from Nvidia.

NBIS shares are up nearly 150% year-to-date.

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