KMX Carmax Inc

$KMX cut about 145 corporate jobs last week — roughly 4% of its white-collar staff — as the used-car retailer continues a cost-cutting turnaround in a weak market. https://www.wsj.com/business/autos/carmax-cuts-jobs-for-third-time-in-12-months-amid-soft-auto-market-c49169dd

$KMX Earnings pre-mortem. CarMax reports fiscal Q2 before the open Tuesday. Wall Street expects about 72 cents a share on roughly 7 billion in revenue. The number to watch is comp-store retail unit sales, not revenue. Last quarter total units rose 3.3% but comps fell 0.8%. CarMax bought the volume by shaving 230 dollars off gross profit per retail used car. The Q2 backdrop is less friendly. The Manheim wholesale index slipped to 206.2 in mid-September, below last year for the first time in 2026. The spring pricing bounce is fully given back. Meanwhile the stock has nearly doubled off its 30 dollar low, and the consensus analyst rating is still Reduce. JP Morgan raised its target to 70 from 60 this month on a beat call. Barr is running it lean: the 145 corporate jobs cut this month is the third round in about a year, aimed at 200 million in annualized overhead savings. Tuesday tells whether the volume play works again without the pricing help.

$KMX Tuesday's consensus is now around $0.71–$0.72 EPS and $6.94–6.97B revenue. MarketBeat That creates a legitimate earnings question: Has the recent 10% pullback already discounted weakening auto demand, or does management guide to further deterioration? Volatility remains the biggest issue Current options imply approximately: ±12.8% while KMX's 10-year average peak earnings-day movement is approximately: ±10.2%. But KMX has exceeded its contemporaneous implied move in 11 of the last 17 reports (65%). EarningsWatcher At roughly $56–57, ±12.8% translates to approximately: Upside expected-move boundary: ~$63.5 Downside boundary: ~$49.2 That's a very large hurdle for naked premium buyers. Revised KMX ALGO Factor Read 90-day trend 🟢 +8.75% 30-day trend 🔴 ~-10% Pre-ER extension 🟢 No excessive run-up Liquidity 🟢 ~2.4M/day Current implied move 🟠 ~12.8% Historical move 🟡 ~10.2% Implied-move exceedance 🟢 11/17 Last quarter 🟢 Large EPS/revenue beat Current operating backdrop 🔴

$KMX what are we thinking going into ER?????? Another current dataset has KMX up about +11.4% over three months, depending on the exact measurement dates. More importantly, the recent trend has reversed sharply: KMX is down about 10.3% over the last month, from an Aug. 26 high of $65.28 to roughly $56.36 on Sept. 24. MarketBeat So the ALGO should read the trend as: 90-day: moderately bullish 30-day: bearish Recent pre-ER: bearish/consolidating Not overextended That removes the sell-the-news penalty we would apply to something like MU. What concerns me instead KMX recently announced another round of layoffs—145 corporate employees—amid high used-car prices, higher financing costs and pressure on consumer affordability. This is the company's third workforce reduction in roughly a year. The Wall Street Journal At the same time, the previous quarter was excellent: $1.31 EPS vs ~$0.97 expected and $8.01B revenue vs ~$7.42B expected.

CarMax shares could move about 9% when the used-car retailer reports earnings on Sept. 29 before the market opens, according to Bloomberg options data, highlighting elevated volatility around the upcoming results. The stock has exceeded its options-implied move in two of its last eight earnings reports. On Sept. 25, 2025, shares fell 22.9% versus an implied 8.6% move, while on April 10, 2025, they dropped 19.7% compared with an implied 7.5% move. Recent reports have produced smaller moves than options markets anticipated. On June 17, shares declined 1.2% against a 12.1% implied move, while the April 14 report resulted in a 2.2% drop versus an implied 11.4% move. The upcoming report will therefore be closely watched for another potential gap between realized and options-implied volatility. $KMX

KMX Stock Edges Higher: CarMax Shares Bounce as 145 Corporate Jobs Go Ahead Of Q2 Report $KMX $IJR $VTI https://stocktwits.com/news/equity/markets/kmx-stock-edges-higher-car-max-shares-bounce-as-145-corporate-jobs-go-ahead-of-q2-report/cZMRvWVRBIZ