SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF

SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust

Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1

Intel Corp. engages in the design, manufacture, and sale of computer products and technologies. It delivers computer, networking, data storage, and communications platforms. The firm operates through the following segments: Client Computing Group (CCG), Data Center and AI (DCAI), Intel Foundry Services (IFS), and All Other. The CCG segment consists of platforms designed for notebooks, 2-in-1 systems, desktops, tablets, phones, wireless and wired connectivity products, and mobile communication components. The DCAI segment delivers solutions to cloud service providers and enterprise customers, along with silicon devices for communications service providers and high-performance computing customers. The IFS segment refers to full stack solutions created from the foundry industry ecosystem. The All Other segment represents results from other non-reportable segments and corporate-related charges. The company was founded by Robert Norton Noyce and Gordon Earle Moore on July 18, 1968, and is headquartered in Santa Clara, CA.

Intel Corp.

Intel Corp

Intels weaker-than-expected outlook after its quarterly reportciting softness in the PC market and manufacturing constraintshas driven a sharp selloff despite stronger data-center demand. Traders are split between viewing the drop as an overreaction and expecting further declines as near-term growth and execution concerns weigh on sentiment.

Bitcoin is the world's first decentralized cryptocurrency, created in 2009 by the pseudonymous Satoshi Nakamoto. It enables peer-to-peer electronic cash transactions without intermediaries like banks or governments, operating on a blockchain secured by Proof of Work mining and the SHA-256 cryptographic algorithm.   With a fixed supply cap of 21 million coins and programmatic halvings every four years that reduce miner rewards, Bitcoin is designed as a deflationary digital asset often called "digital gold." Its value stems from solving the double-spending problem without trusted intermediaries, creating the first truly scarce digital asset with censorship resistance and permissionless access that no government, corporation, or individual can control.  Bitcoin operates as a decentralized peer-to-peer network where transactions are recorded on a public ledger called the blockchain, distributed across thousands of computers globally. Transactions are grouped into blocks added approximately every 10 minutes through mining, where specialized computers compete to solve complex mathematical puzzles.   Bitcoin has achieved mainstream adoption through multiple vectors. The January 2024 SEC approval of 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs opened Bitcoin investment to traditional finance participants, and corporations like Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) are using Bitcoin as a treasury reserve asset to protect against currency debasement, offering MSTR holders amplified exposure to Bitcoin.   The Bitcoin ecosystem continues to evolve with innovations like Ordinals, which emerged in January 2023 to enable NFT-like functionality directly on Bitcoin, and BRC-20 tokens, an experimental standard for creating fungible tokens using Ordinal inscriptions. BTCFi (Bitcoin Finance) represents emerging financial applications extending beyond Bitcoin's traditional role, with protocols like Babylon allowing Bitcoin holders to stake BTC to secure Proof of Stake chains.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin is drawing attention after reports of a major Binance security breach coincided with a sharp crypto selloff, prompting concerns about exchange security and confidence across the sector. Traders are split between warning of further downside and treating the pullback as a buying opportunity, with some arguing the incident affected an exchange rather than Bitcoin itself.

Sandisk Corp. engages in the development, manufacture, and provision of storage devices and solutions based on NAND flash technology. Its products include solid state drives, memory cards, and USB flash drives. The company was founded on February 5, 2024 and is headquartered in Milpitas, CA.

Sandisk Corp

SanDisks strong quarterly results and raised outlook were followed by a sharp selloff, prompting widespread frustration that the stock fell despite the beat. Traders debate whether broader tech weakness and profit-taking explain the move, while some cite concerns about memory pricing and Kioxias outlook; others argue demand and fundamentals remain strong.

Strategy, Inc. engages in the development of fixed-income instruments that provide investors varying degrees of economic exposure to bitcoin. It executes bitcoin acquisition, capital management, and capital markets strategies. The company was founded by Michael J. Saylor and Sanjeev K. Bansal on November 17, 1989, and is headquartered in Tysons Corner, VA.

Strategy Inc. - Ordinary Shares - Class A

Strategy

Bitcoin weakness tied to reports of a major Binance security incident is weighing on MSTR alongside mixed Q3 results: revenue missed, while reported profit was largely driven by gains on Bitcoin holdings, and the company disclosed a CFO transition. Traders are split between viewing the selloff as a crypto-driven buying opportunity and citing dilution, dividend obligations, and leadership uncertainty as reasons for caution.

Amazon.com, Inc. is a multinational technology company, which engages in the provision of online retail shopping services. It operates through the following segments: North America, International, and Amazon Web Services (AWS). The North America segment offers retail sale of consumer products, including from sellers, advertising, and subscriptions services through North America-focused online and physical stores. The International segment focuses on retail sale of consumer products, including sellers, advertising, and subscription services through internationally focused online stores. The AWS segment is composed of global sales of computers, storage, databases, and other services for start-ups, enterprises, government agencies, and academic institutions. The company was founded by Jeffrey P. Bezos in July 1994 and is headquartered in Seattle, WA.

Amazon.com Inc.

Amazon.com Inc

Amazons quarterly results and outlook have weighed on the stock, as investors focus on heavy AI infrastructure spending and negative free cash flow despite accelerating AWS growth. Traders are divided between concern that spending may outrun returns and views that the selloff is an overreaction to investment in a fast-growing cloud business.

Apple, Inc. engages in the design, manufacture, and sale of smartphones, personal computers, tablets, wearables and accessories, and other varieties of related services. It operates through the following geographical segments: Americas, Europe, Greater China, Japan, and Rest of Asia Pacific. The Americas segment includes North and South America. The Europe segment consists of European countries, as well as India, the Middle East, and Africa. The Greater China segment comprises China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan. The Rest of Asia Pacific segment includes Australia and Asian countries. Its products and services include iPhone, Mac, iPad, AirPods, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, AppleCare, iCloud, digital content stores, streaming, and licensing services. The company was founded by Steven Paul Jobs, Ronald Gerald Wayne, and Stephen G. Wozniak in April 1976 and is headquartered in Cupertino, CA.

Apple Inc

Apples unusual resilience while other mega-cap and AI stocks sell off is widely attributed by traders to a rotation into the stock as a safe haven and an anti-AI-capex hedge. The strength is drawing skepticism over its high valuation and whether it can hold up through earnings, while bulls view its cash generation and lower AI spending as defensive advantages.

SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST - SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust

Weak technology earnings and doubts about returns on heavy AI spendingparticularly after Amazon and Intel resultsare fueling concern about a broader tech-led pullback. Traders are split between calling it an AI-trade unwind and treating the decline as a buyable dip, with some noting SPY has held up better than tech-heavy QQQ.

Reddit, Inc. operates an entertainment, social networking, and news website where registered community members can submit content. The firm provides online news services where users can select and rank web content. It also offers a personalized filter on the day's story, using previous votes to determine what new things the user might like to read. The company was founded by Steven Ladd Huffman and Alexis Ohanian on June 23, 2005 and is headquartered in San Francisco, CA.

Reddit Inc. - Ordinary Shares - Class A

Reddit Inc

Reddits selloff follows weaker-than-expected fourth-quarter revenue guidance, a miss on user growth, and managements warning that Google search referrals are declining; plans to test logged-in-only access have added concern that traffic could fall further. Traders are debating whether the reaction is excessive given strong revenue growth, while many focus on the risks to users and future growth.

Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 - Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1

Weak Amazon and Intel results have intensified selling across technology and chip stocks, with traders focused on whether heavy AI infrastructure spending will generate adequate returns. The community is debating whether the pullback signals an AI-trade bubble bursting or a buying opportunity, while some also cite rising oil and geopolitical uncertainty as added pressure.

Rivian Automotive, Inc. engages in the design, development, and manufacture of category-defining electric vehicles and accessories. It operates through following segments: Automotive, Software and Services. The company was founded by Robert J. Scaringe in June 2009 and is headquartered in Irvine, CA.

Rivian Automotive Inc - Ordinary Shares - Class A

Rivian Automotive Inc

Rivians quarterly results beat expectations as R2 deliveries ramped, and the company raised its full-year delivery outlook, prompting optimism about improving execution and growth. Traders remain divided over whether the stronger outlook can offset ongoing losses and cash burn, while some also caution that the post-earnings move may fade; speculation about a Walmart van deal remains unconfirmed.

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Zomato Ltd.

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Tata Motors Ltd.

HDFC Bank Ltd.

ITC Ltd.

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Should You Forget the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) and Buy the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) Instead?

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RSP, P, MRNA, PTC: Large Inflows Detected at ETF

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S&P 500’s Narrow Rally Faces Fresh Tests From CPI, Bank Earnings: 3 Charts To Watch This Week

Equity

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David Ellison Says ‘We’re Not Rewriting History’ With Paramount, Warner Bros. Merger — ‘Together, We Are Skydance’ 

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Invesco Exchange-Traded Fund Trust - Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF

Bearish Sentiment

<ul class="summary-bullets"><li>The VIX-to-three-month volatility ratio is near the low end of its two-year range, suggesting investors are paying relatively little for near-term protection.</li><li>Regional banks are underperforming the broader market, putting loan quality, funding costs and net interest income in focus as earnings season begins.</li><li>Wednesday's September CPI report could shift expectations for the Federal Reserve's next move and test the market's confidence.</li></ul>The stock market looks calm, but three charts suggest a more complicated picture. The S&amp;P 500 is near record highs even as its rally remains concentrated, options markets show limited demand for near-term protection, and regional banks continue to lag. September inflation data and a fresh round of bank earnings could test that uneasy balance this week.<h2 class="st-heading-2">The S&amp;P 500 Rally Is Becoming More Concentrated</h2>The S&amp;P 500 has climbed roughly 80% since the start of 2024, but gains have not been evenly distributed across the market. The market-cap-weighted index has outpaced its equal-weight counterpart by about 16 percentage points, underscoring how much the rally has depended on a smaller group of large-cap stocks.<figure class="image"><img src="https://news.stocktwits-cdn.com/koyfin_20261012_062138208_5bc62f1017.png" alt="koyfin_20261012_062138208.png" width="2400" height="1240"><figcaption>SPX vs. RSP/SPY charted year-to-date. | Source: Koyfin</figcaption></figure>The rally has also narrowed since the spring 2026 low. Concentration is not a sell signal, but it changes the risk. An index held up by a few names is more exposed to a single earnings miss or a jump in yields.&nbsp;Strong inflation data this week could complicate the outlook for rate cuts and weigh on risk appetite, while a softer reading could help support stocks beyond the market’s biggest names.The&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/SPY">SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust</a> (SPY) traded flat in pre-market trade on Monday. On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around the ETF trended in ‘bullish’ territory over the past day.<h2 class="st-heading-2">Options Markets Show Little Demand For Near-Term Protection</h2>The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) is often called Wall Street’s fear gauge. It measures how much investors are paying for insurance against near-term swings in the S&amp;P 500. This chart compares that short-term price with the price of insurance three months out. Right now short-term protection is cheaper, which is what you’d expect when nobody is worried about the next few weeks.<figure class="image"><img src="https://news.stocktwits-cdn.com/koyfin_20261012_062400454_0d301d3d6e.png" alt="koyfin_20261012_062400454.png" width="2400" height="1240"><figcaption>VIX/VIX3M vs. SPX charted year-to-date. | Source: Koyfin</figcaption></figure>A reading below 1 suggests traders are pricing in less near-term volatility than volatility over a longer horizon. The ratio is near the low end of its two-year range.The spikes above 1.0 are sharp and short-lived. They came in August 2024, December 2024 and April 2025, the last of which peaked near 1.28. In each case, the move came fast and with little warning.&nbsp;That calm could hold if economic data and corporate results reassure investors. However, a hotter inflation reading or an earnings surprise could quickly change the picture, making the reaction in volatility markets worth watching.<h2 class="st-heading-2">Regional Banks Continue To Lag</h2>Big banks have not moved as a group this year.&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/C">Citigroup</a> (C) is up 11.1% and&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/MS">Morgan Stanley</a> (MS) is up 7.0%.&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/JPM">JPMorgan</a> (JPM) is up 3.3% and&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/GS">Goldman Sachs</a> (GS) is up 1.9%.&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/BAC">Bank of America</a> (BAC) is down 1.2%, and&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/WFC">Wells Fargo</a> (WFC) is down 10.4%. That is a spread of more than 20 points between the best and worst names.<figure class="image"><img src="https://news.stocktwits-cdn.com/koyfin_20261012_062025417_8cec0ffe43.png" alt="koyfin_20261012_062025417.png" width="2400" height="1240"><figcaption>Big banks and KRE/SPY year-to-date. | Source: Koyfin</figcaption></figure>Meanwhile,&nbsp; the regional bank ETF relative to the S&amp;P 500 is at 0.0886, its lowest level of the year. Higher-for-longer rates can help margins, but they can also raise funding costs and credit worries, and regionals tend to feel that first.&nbsp;The&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/XLF">Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund</a> (XLF) edged up as much as 0.3% in pre-market trading. Retail sentiment around the ETF trended in ‘bullish’ territory over the past day.Earnings reports could offer a clearer view of those pressures, particularly through net interest income, deposit costs and loan-loss provisions. The results may help determine whether regional banks’ underperformance reflects lingering sector-specific concerns or a broader risk to financial stocks.<h2 class="st-heading-2">Three ways the week could go</h2><ol><li>A hot inflation report: If inflation comes in above forecasts, expect talk of another Fed hike in October to come roaring back. One outlook noted that a rise in services prices to its highest level since July 2022 means a hot reading would put an October hike back in play. That would hit a narrow market with low insurance coverage, which is the combination we’ve described across the charts.<a class="st-link-external" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.thearmchairtrader.com/global-economic-news/market-outlook-earnings-season-gets-underway-on-tuesday/">&nbsp;</a></li><li>An in-line report:&nbsp;If inflation matches expectations, the market probably breathes out. That keeps the focus on earnings and gives the record highs a chance to hold.</li><li>A cool report:&nbsp;If inflation comes in below forecasts, hike fears should fade. The more interesting question is who benefits. If the rally broadens beyond the largest companies, the first chart will start to heal.</li></ol>Read also:&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/mag-7-voices-how-nvidia-microsoft-alphabet-meta-reshaped-ai-this-week/cZxT1H2RBn8">MAG 7 Voices: How Nvidia, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta Reshaped AI This Week</a>For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.

Traders work before the closing bell at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) (Photo credit should read JOHANNES EISELE/AFP via Getty Images)

The stock market looks calm, but three charts suggest a more complicated picture. The S&P 500 is near record highs even as its rally remains concentrated, options markets show limited demand for near-term protection, and regional banks continue to lag. Se

SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF

Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF

CBOE Volatility Index

Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund

Hold rates steady

Cut 25 bps

Hike 25 bps

Fed decision day is here - Kevin Warsh chairs his first FOMC meeting with markets pricing a hold at 3.50%-3.75% but watching for a hawkish shift. Vote on what you expect to be decided today, then drop your prediction for the first rate cut or hike in the comments.

What do you expect the Fed to decide at its FOMC meeting today? 
 
Drop a comment with when you expect the first cut/hike to be.

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