SHY iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF

Bankrate: Today’s national average on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is 7.34% vs 6.31% AAA: US national average price for regular gasoline at about $4.49 vs $3.1506 a year ago US national price for diesel at about $6.4139 vs $3.6997 a year ago —- Likely outcomes: 1) Blame Biden 2) Blame the Fed 3) Blame Democrats 4) Blame Biden 5) States will cut fuel taxes 6) Increase Treasury buybacks 7) Blame Biden 8) Change LCR req’ts & adjust HQLA treatment to favor Treasuries 9) Blame Biden $SHY $USO $TLT $XLE $XHB

Remember when US Treasury Sec Bessent made the “I am the house now… bet against me if you want” comments on Sept 8, framing his interventions (yen support + stepped-up Treasury buybacks) as having an information edge. The market did just that & bet against him - in the 3 weeks since: • Long-term yields moved sharply higher (roughly +35–40 bps on the 20- and 30-year) • TLT sunk -5.9% (from $82.20 to the mid-$77’s) And the irony is hard to miss….. Bessent’s own hedge fund track record already foreshadowed this dynamic. Key Square’s AUM collapsed from a ~$5.1B peak in 2017 to just ~$577M by end‑2023 — a nearly -90% drawdown. Institutional investors fled b/c the performance was inconsistent & the edge he claimed didn’t materialize. His prior venture, Bessent Capital (circa 2000–2005), met a similar fate, shuttered after similarly mixed results As former President GWB Jr said: Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me — you can’t get fooled again $SHY $GLD.X $IBIT $AGG $TLT

Rumour: Republican leaders in Congress are weighing a party-line legislative package to increase the $41.1T debt limit, aiming to push a vote thru during the post-election lame-duck session to secure the administration's borrowing authority Last July, the 2025 reconciliation bill—the One Big Beautiful Bill Act—officially increased the federal debt limit by $5T, raising the borrowing ceiling from $36.1T to $41.1T Currently, the Trump admin has used up $4.08T of total borrowing capacity, pushing the gross national debt past $40.11T, leaving roughly $990B in headroom before the statutory limit is breached in early to mid-2027 $SHY $TLT $UUP $GLD.X $IBIT