SHY iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF

Bankrate: Today’s national average on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is 7.34% vs 6.31% AAA: US national average price for regular gasoline at about $4.49 vs $3.1506 a year ago US national price for diesel at about $6.4139 vs $3.6997 a year ago —- Likely outcomes: 1) Blame Biden 2) Blame the Fed 3) Blame Democrats 4) Blame Biden 5) States will cut fuel taxes 6) Increase Treasury buybacks 7) Blame Biden 8) Change LCR req’ts & adjust HQLA treatment to favor Treasuries 9) Blame Biden $SHY $USO $TLT $XLE $XHB

Remember when US Treasury Sec Bessent made the “I am the house now… bet against me if you want” comments on Sept 8, framing his interventions (yen support + stepped-up Treasury buybacks) as having an information edge. The market did just that & bet against him - in the 3 weeks since: • Long-term yields moved sharply higher (roughly +35–40 bps on the 20- and 30-year) • TLT sunk -5.9% (from $82.20 to the mid-$77’s) And the irony is hard to miss….. Bessent’s own hedge fund track record already foreshadowed this dynamic. Key Square’s AUM collapsed from a ~$5.1B peak in 2017 to just ~$577M by end‑2023 — a nearly -90% drawdown. Institutional investors fled b/c the performance was inconsistent & the edge he claimed didn’t materialize. His prior venture, Bessent Capital (circa 2000–2005), met a similar fate, shuttered after similarly mixed results As former President GWB Jr said: Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me — you can’t get fooled again $SHY $GLD.X $IBIT $AGG $TLT

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has hired veteran Wall Street economist David Zervos, the longtime chief market strategist at Jefferies...he has backed Bessent’s recent decision to increase buybacks of some long-term Treasury debt & has called for lower interest rates from the Federal Reserve Zervos has a doctorate in economics and has worked twice for the Fed In the interview, discussing Treasury’s tactical/long-end buybacks (likened to Operation Twist-style moves), Zervos said: “But I don’t see how you could fight this when the firepower & the cards are all sitting in the Treasury Dept. So we’ll see. There could be some fights for a little while, but I’m not expecting the traditional bond vigilantes to win any battles here" Note: 10yr Yield: 5.266% - highest in nearly 2 decades 7 of the dept’s 16 Senate-confirmed appointees had left the Treasury Dept as of mid-August. Bessent is on his 3rd chief of staff since becoming Treasury secretary in January 2025 $SHY $TLT $TLTW $GLD.X $SPY

The bond market is providing some concerning signals: Short-term treasury bond fund $SHY testing its 50-week moving average for the first time since March of 2023 $BONDS