EXE Expand Energy Corp. - Ordinary Shares - New

$EXE Weakness looks more like financing/positioning noise than due to the $500M note deal. The irony is debt issuance is tied to the Twin Eagle transaction, and the acquisition is expected to be immediately accretive, contribute more than $200 million of annual EBITDA initially, and rise to roughly $350 million after synergies. Expand also raised its marketing/commercial free-cash-flow target to $750 million annually because of Twin Eagle. Twin Eagle deal is supposed to close in the next couple of weeks. Twin Eagle actually reduces one weakness in the old EXE story: being too dependent on gas production and taking whatever price the market gives them. The combined company gets more storage, transport, marketing reach and optimization capability. That should make earnings more durable across different gas environments. I’m adding on this weakness.

$EXE $105 calls for June 17th 2027 seeing unusual action. Nearly $1.5M of net buying 🐂 Expand Energy price target raised to $129.00/share from $124.00 by UBS ⬆️

$EXE Forward strip for NG futures. While NG is largely weather dependent, LNG exports are running 18 bcf/d a 16% YOY increase and is projected to increase further in 2027. Gas burn power demand was flat YOY, but is expected to increase by 6% next summer. So there may be some structural shifts occurring that begin to put a floor under NG prices, which is bullish for EXE longer-term.

$EXE $EQT natural gas stocks keep acting bad, Exe making a new 52 weeks low...thats is not bulish

#NATGAS up almost 6% and every contract into 2028 are up today, meanwhile $EXE is red. This is classic market maker suppression of the tape, as seen here. The 88 ceiling is gone by Friday when these puts expire. The rubber band is being stretched.... Look at $EQT as they usually track over 100 days within .02% differential to $EXE up 2% on the day. more to come, great opportunity to load the boat at historical TL support. Just be patient with MM crap!

$EXE The time of year will start to work in EXE’s favor soon enough. They are well hedged for Q3. Earnings in about 6 weeks. Just a little patience is required

$EXE phantom wicks on this galore this AM. This was just after a phantom print at 107.02

$EXE Buying some more today. Getting close to the line in the sand here. I want to see divergence hold up for the 4hr RSI. If the RSI drops below 34.62 I’ll sell since it would indicate a larger drop is coming. Will look for another entry opportunity if so.