NDX Nasdaq-100 Index

$NDX I have never seen so many people be outright bearish when this is probably the healthiest consolidation we've seen since 2023. Mind you we went out on the monthly at all time highs. I know people will highlight XLU and XLB today, which arent the safety names you think (since they smoked the last couple of months, just like TLT). What they are and will be IMO, is the breadth expansion that everyone seems to look for (which we had in August if you remember RSP). I think many are thinking that are pull money out of the markets while it's a topping process (sound smart right now), but what happens, just for a minute ponder, if you are wrong? The question is are you smarter then Jensen or a better business man???

$NDX Nasdaq100 index. Investors continue treat AI as the only visible supercycle that can still deliver earnings growth in an ugly macro backdrop. As long as results and capex keep confirming that, the “go higher” trade can absorb more uncertainty than the classic rates-and-recession playbook would suggest. The trend is your friend till it ends, period.

$NDX Incredible stat. The weekly 20 SMA crossed over the 50 SMA in 1995. It didn't cross below it again for 5 years!

$NDX So much for manias. In relation to historical cycles, the NDX isn't that far from its weekly 200 SMA. In 2000, for instance, it traded more than 150% above that same level!

$NDX $QQQ In the markets, STRENGTH most often creates MORE STRENGTH. Below is some data showing that when the NASDAQ is +20% or more through 3 quarters (like this year), it has been higher 82% of the time the rest of the year and 91% of the time 6-months later. The returns are also significant with averages of +14% and +21% respectively over those time frames. Check out 1999 - it was +54% in the final 3 months and +76% over 6 months - WOW!

$NDX $SPY Some wired feeling that the manipulators will conjure up and narrate some negativity for AI stocks tomorrow to get the prices lower. Cautious there. But dips will be watched closely and possible buying/adding opportunities will present themselves.

$540 Billion Added To The US Stock Market Today As The Nasdaq Hits A New All Time High. This Is Happening Despite: 1. ISM Services PMI Coming In Lower Than Expected. 2. US 20-Year and 30-Year Treasury Yields Hitting Fresh 24-Year Highs $NDX $DJIA $RUT $SPY $BTC.X

For some investors, the volatile situation is leading to a more intent focus on core balance sheet metrics led by free cash flow, which measures the cash left over after expenses, interest, taxes and long-term investments. Return on equity, net debt leverage and earnings consistency have also moved to a more central location on the radar of investors, said Todd Rosenbluth, head of research and editorial at TMX VettaFi. Just how much companies are spending to generate long-term growth on AI, and which companies can actually handle that capex load, are implicit in the flight to quality mindset. “With expectations that spending on AI is being revisited, investors are turning toward companies that they have confidence will continue to grow despite the shifting environment,” Rosenbluth said. $NDX

If $NDX holds +2% into the afternoon with SOX still ripping, this stops being a dead-cat and starts looking like a genuine squeeze of last week’s oil/yield short.

The legislation doesn’t go far enough, Heinrich said, echoing concerns from progressive Democrats and environmental groups that it wouldn’t prohibit states or developers from raising costs for area residents related to the facilities, which store data, process information and have helped fuel the AI boom. “It’s not enough to tell states to consider making data centers pay for grid updates,” Heinrich said from the Senate floor on Thursday, as he quashed the measure. “Rather than voluntary pledges or suggestions to states, Congress needs to pass real legislation with real teeth.” Despite the setback, Husted, who is in a tough reelection fight for his seat, said he would continue to work toward the passage of the bill, which he introduced in July. $NDX

$NDX 28700 puts for tomorrow and 29320 today. I’m just going to shut this shit off and look after close lol.

The essay urged artificial intelligence companies to pace how quickly they improve model capabilities. The move comes amid a growing chorus of researchers calling for a coordinated deceleration. Amodei proposed a three-step plan that he said will help temper the pace of development without “sacrificing commercial advantage or the United States’ lead in AI,” though he conceded that some steps may be easier to achieve than others. Pressure is building in Washington, where lawmakers in both parties are calling for new AI safeguards and demanding tech leaders testify after a rash of cyberattacks were carried out without direct human control. $NDX