Technology Eyes All-Time Highs

The technology sector ETF $XLK is the first sector SPDR ETF to approach its all-time highs following 2022’s market correction. 🤩

Now, that’s not terribly surprising, given that mega-cap technology stocks have been the strongest since the October 2022 bottom. However, a quick look under the surface shows that Microsoft and Apple comprise 46% of the ETF’s weighting & account for half of its 40% YTD return. With Nvidia, Broadcom, & Salesforce, that number jumps to 75% of the YTD return.

As such, that begs the question of where the market’s future leadership will come from. Mega and large-cap technology stocks cannot go up forever, so investors are looking for the next group of stocks to begin participating to the upside.

So far, we’ve seen an uptick in participation from mid and small-cap technology stocks. But outside of technology, communication services, and consumer discretionary, most sectors are up marginally or down on the year. That can continue for some time. But ultimately, market bulls want to see more sectors and stocks participating, which will help the major indexes continue to rise. 📈

While we’re on the subject of tech stocks, let’s recap a couple of earnings. 

Electronics contract manufacturer Jabil hit all-time highs today. The company’s third-quarter results beat top and bottom line expectations, though its guidance for the current quarter came in below estimates. 🏭

Adobe shares are jumping 3% after the software company beat earnings and revenue expectations. Executives said the company is positioned to lead the new era of generative AI given its datasets, foundation models, and product interfaces. 🌥️

And lastly, Cognyte Software shares popped 6% after reporting better-than-expected revenues. Higher revenues offset misses on earnings per share, gross margin, operating margin, and adjusted EBITDA. 🔺

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The Bloomberg Billionaires Index indicated that the net worth of the wealthiest 500 people soared by $1.5 trillion this year, recovering all of the $1.4 trillion lost in 2022. That came despite fears of recession, elevated inflation, higher interest rates, and geopolitical turmoil as markets (and the economy) climbed the “wall of worry.”

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The last time we checked in on this was in early November when stocks found support at a confluence of “technical” levels that many market participants were watching. Since then, it’s been quite the wild ride, with the S&P 500 rallying over 16% in about eight weeks and approaching its all-time highs from 2022.

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Below is a two-year daily candlestick chart with a few key indicators. The first is the 200-day moving average (blue), which traders use to track the long-term trend in the market. The next two are the anchored volume weighted average price (AVWAP) from the market’s 2022 highs and 2022 lows. Traders use this to track how the average buyer/seller has fared in the market from a specific date.

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Investors Ditch China For Nvidia

While everyone is looking at the S&P 500 closing above 5,000 as this week’s stat of the week, MarketWatch is flagging another wild data point. 🚨

As you can see from the headline snippet above, Nvidia is now worth as much as the entire Chinese stock market. While several stocks already have achieved this feat, they’re bigger conglomerates with many businesses under one roof. But Nvidia is a chip designer and manufacturer with a more straightforward business model, making this that much crazier of an occurrence. 

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