Stocks Break Their Win Streak

Nvidia’s evil plan to take over the stock market was put on hold today despite labor market data helping build the case for a June rate cut. 🤔

The February jobs report showed that nonfarm payrolls rose by 275,000, topping the 198,000 expected. However, the previous two months’ numbers were revised lower by 167,000 jobs, causing the unemployment rate to jump to 3.90% and signaling a further softening of the labor market. 🔻

On top of that, wage growth was just 0.1% MoM and 4.3% YoY, a positive sign for the Fed’s fight against inflation.

Weakness in the labor market renewed investors’ hopes for a June rate cut, causing stocks to surge after the open. However, after making a new high, sellers came in and pushed stocks lower throughout the day, as shown in Nvidia’s chart below. An 11% swing in a $2 trillion stock is quite the single-day move on no company-specific news. 😳

And speaking of Nvidia, one graph that’s been going around lately to show just how wild the stock market’s move has been is Nvidia vs. Apple’s market cap. The gap between them has been closing at a record pace, with many pointing out it would only take a few good days from Nvidia and a few more bad days from Apple for it to become the second-largest company in the world. 🫨

Overall, the large-cap stock market indexes continue to grind higher while small and mid-cap stocks play catchup. Investors and traders will be watching to see if stocks posting their third down week of 2024 will change the momentum in the near term. ⚔️

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First, let’s start with the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index. The chart below shows that the index had one of its best rolling 12-month total returns in decades, rising 55%. The actual total return index also hit new all-time monthly closing highs, reiterating that bulls took back the momentum this year in a big way. 🤩

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Below are four examples of international indexes hitting new all-time highs, including Germany’s DAX, Poland’s Warsaw Stock Index, Brazil’s Bovespa, and India’s Nifty 50. It shows a range of both developed and emerging markets seeing strong demand from investors around the globe. 📈

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Traders Eye IPOs Into 2024

After a rough patch from late 2021 through 2022, this year, the initial public offering (IPO) tried to make a comeback. Now, traders say 2024 could be the year this turnaround really comes. 👍 

Below is a chart of the Renaissance IPO ETF ($IPO), which is up about 53% so far this year. But technical analysts and traders say that its recent breakout to roughly eighteen-month closing highs signals a critical trend change in prices. They argue that prices staying above the 35-37 range, which has previously served as an inflection point in the stock, would suggest momentum has shifted firmly to the upside. 🙃

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