Standard Chartered Says Bitcoin Drop Below $100K ‘Inevitable’ Before Rebound

• Standard Chartered’s crypto strategist Geoffrey Kendrick sees the pullback as the last major buying opportunity below six figures.
• According to him, key reversal signals include shifts in gold flows, Fed liquidity moves, and Bitcoin’s technical support levels.
• Kendrick maintains a $200,000 year-end target, citing macro catalysts and ETF demand.

Standard Chartered’s head of digital asset research, Geoffrey Kendrick, reportedly said on Wednesday that Bitcoin’s (BTC) decline below $100,000 appears “inevitable.”

His comments come less than three weeks after forecasting a climb to $135,000. In a note to clients, cited by CoinDesk, Kendrick said Bitcoin’s recent high of $126,000 on October 6 matched his short-term target but failed to hold amid renewed macro pressures — particularly rising U.S.-China trade tensions that have shaken risk assets.

Kendrick said a brief drop below $100,000 could mark the “last-ever chance” to buy Bitcoin below six figures, suggesting the downside may be limited before the next leg higher.

Bitcoin’s price slipped nearly 4% in afternoon trade trading at around $108,000. On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around the leading cryptocurrency trended in ‘neutral’ territory with chatter at ‘high’ levels over the past day. 

Analyst Says Bitcoin Pullback Linked To Heightened U.S.-China Trade Anxiety

A massive cryptocurrency selloff took place two weeks ago after President Donald Trump reignited tariff tensions with China, which sparked panic selling that sent Bitcoin tumbling from above $122,000 to around $101,000 on Bitstamp within hours. “Since then, the 10 October U.S.-China trade war fear-driven selloff put paid to any further push higher,” he wrote. “The question now is how far does bitcoin need to fall before finding a base?”

Three Signals That Could Mark A Turning Point

Kendrick identified three factors that could signal a turning point. The first is capital flow between gold and Bitcoin. A sharp selloff in gold earlier this week coincided with an intraday bounce in Bitcoin, possibly indicating a shift in investor preference. “Further such evidence would be constructive for a bitcoin low being formed,” he said.

The second factor is potential easing by the Federal Reserve. Kendrick noted that several liquidity indicators have been tightening, and an end to quantitative tightening could create a more favorable environment for Bitcoin.

The third factor Kendrick noted was that Bitcoin has consistently held above its 50-week moving average since early 2023, when it was trading around $25,000.

Kendrick Reaffirms $200K Target

Earlier this month, Kendrick set a year-end price target of $200,000, citing risks tied to a potential U.S. government shutdown, Bitcoin’s correlation with Treasury premiums, and ETF inflows. 

While the rally has since paused, he reiterated his view that the broader uptrend remains intact and that dips below $100,000 could be viewed as long-term entry opportunities rather than trend reversals.

Read also: FalconX To Acquire 21Shares In Push Toward Crypto ETF Expansion: Report

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