Four Accounts Win $600,000 On US-Iran Ceasefire, Adding To Suspected Insider Trades On Polymarket

• On-chain data showed four newly created wallets made over $600,000 by betting on a U.S.-Iran ceasefire shortly before it was announced.
• The accounts had no prior transaction history and placed high-conviction bets at low odds.
• Lawmakers are proposing new rules to restrict prediction market activity involving political or military events.

Four newly created wallets on Polymarket made over $600,000 betting on Wednesday after betting on a U.S.-Iran ceasefire by April 7, with the trades placed shortly before the public announcement.

On-chain data flagged by Lookonchain showed that all four accounts were created and funded on April 7. The wallets purchased “yes” shares just hours before the ceasefire, with no prior activity recorded. Each account placed bets at low odds of 3.9%, 10.3%, 6.7%, and 2.9%.

Polysights flagged one trader, identified as Fernandoinfante, who turned roughly $13,200 into $467,515 on the Polymarket contract tied to the ceasefire.

Repeat Patterns Raise Scrutiny On Polymarket Activity

This is not the first time that such suspicious activity has been spotted on Polymarket. In March, Bubblemaps identified six wallets that collectively made about $1.2 million on Polymarket contracts tied to the U.S. strike against Iran when the war started.

Prior to that, in January, a newly created account wagered more than $30,000 that Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro would be removed from office by January 31, 2026. The position reportedly paid out more than $400,000. 

Prediction Markets Face Regulatory Pressure

Polymarket is a blockchain-based prediction market where users bet on events using the stablecoin USD Coin (USDC), which is issued by Circle Internet Group (CRCL), with revenue is shared with Coinbase (COIN). On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around the Polymarket remained in ‘bearish’ territory over the past day, with chatter at ‘extremely high’ levels.

In March, House lawmakers introduced a bill that bars federal officials and staff from trading on prediction markets. U.S. Representative Ritchie Torres’ (D-NY) Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026 proposed to prohibit elected officials, political appointees, executive branch employees, and congressional staff from buying, selling, or exchanging prediction market contracts tied to government policy or political outcomes when they possess material nonpublic information. 

Democrat Senator Chris Murphy also said that he would introduce legislation to ban betting on military actions after traders made significant profits on Polymarket ahead of a U.S. strike on Iran.

Read also: Adam Back Denies He’s Satoshi Nakamoto, Says It’s ‘Coincidence And Similar Phrases’

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