AFRM Stock Rises Overnight Ahead Of Earnings: This Analyst Expects A 27% Growth In GMV

• Morgan Stanley said that most investors appear to expect an initial gross merchandise value growth outlook near 27% for both fiscal first quarter (Q1) and FY27, versus consensus at 28.5% and 29%, respectively.  
• The analyst added that beyond Affirm's "typical outlook conservatism," the heightened skepticism about a below-Street outlook centers on Prime Day timing.
• Investors will be watching Affirm’s GMV details, credit delinquency data, and forward guidance closely in its upcoming release.

Shares of Affirm Holdings Inc. (AFRM) are up nearly 1% overnight late Wednesday as the buy now, pay later firm gears up to report its fourth-quarter (Q4) earnings after hours on Thursday. 

The stock is headed for its second week in the red, but some analysts believe that a strong print could prove positive for the company.

Morgan Stanley raised the price target on Affirm to $80 from $79 and kept an ‘Equal Weight’ rating on the shares, implying an upside of about 4.6% from its last close. 

Why Did Morgan Stanley Hike AFRM Stock Target Ahead Of Q2 Results?

As per TheFly, Morgan Stanley said most investors appear to expect initial gross merchandise value growth near 27% for both fiscal first quarter (Q1) and FY27, versus consensus at 28.5% and 29%, respectively.  

The analyst added that beyond Affirm's "typical outlook conservatism," the heightened skepticism about a below-Street outlook centers on Prime Day timing.

Amazon.com (AMZN) offers several major sales opportunities during the holiday season, including its Labor Day Sale, typically in the last week of August and first week of September, Prime Big Deal Days in October, and Black Friday/Cyber Monday promotions from late November into early December. 

Amazon’s Prime Day sales often drive higher consumer spending and transaction volumes, potentially benefiting buy now, pay later firms as shoppers use installments to finance larger purchases.

As per Adobe Analytics, consumers spent $26.4 billion online across U.S. retailers from June 23–26, which coincided with Amazon’s Prime Day sales, up 9.3% year-over-year. Meanwhile, BNPL accounted for $2.1 billion of that spending, up 9.5% year over year, with BNPL orders representing 6.6% of online orders.

What’s Wall Street Expecting From AFRM Q4 Results?

Investors will be watching Affirm’s GMV details, credit delinquency data, and forward guidance closely in its upcoming release.

Wall Street expects the company to report revenue of $1.11 billion for the quarter, up about 27% from the $876.42 million revenue posted in the comparable quarter of the previous year, according to data from Fiscal.ai.

Earnings per share is expected to come in at $0.85, compared to $0.53 in Q4 2025, implying an expected rise of about 60%.

AFRM Stock: Retail Stance

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around AFRM stock was ‘bullish’ at the time of writing amid ‘normal’ message volumes. 

One user said, “$AFRM chat we are bullish on this earnings report.”

However, another bearish user said, “Hard to be bullish in this space at this time going into earnings.”

AFRM stock is up about 3% so far in 2026. 

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