ASTS Stock Rises After-Hours — But Analyst Warns Every Starlink Weakness 'Is Worse' For AST SpaceMobile

• Analyst Tim Farrar said that longer signal paths, more ground-based processing, and larger beam footprints may hit ASTS harder than SpaceX.
• Investors increasingly view Starlink as the primary benchmark for satellite-to-smartphone connectivity without specialized devices.
• FCC spectrum setbacks and the BlueBird-7 launch anomaly have added uncertainty to AST's rollout timeline.

Shares of AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) ended over 1% higher on Monday and extended gains in after-hours trading, as a recent regulatory approval for its satellite constellation helped offset concerns following a failed satellite deployment. A satellite communications analyst cautioned, however, that the challenges may not yet be over for the company.

Starlink Weaknesses May Hit ASTS Harder

Silicon Valley-based satcom and wireless spectrum consultant Tim Farrar has warned that challenges already affecting SpaceX's Starlink Mobile service could be even more severe for AST's legacy handset strategy.

"Every aspect that is problematic for Starlink is worse for AST when using legacy handsets," Farrar said on X, adding that "longer path lengths due to higher altitude create higher latency, more functions on the ground make this worse, and larger beams create more timing mismatches."

Farrar's comments come as investors increasingly treat Starlink as the closest benchmark for satellite-to-smartphone connectivity without specialized hardware.

A research paper published in March by Tsinghua University found that even with engineering adjustments to help ordinary smartphones connect to satellites, SpaceX's Starlink direct-to-phone system still experiences packet loss of about 25% to 30%, frequent connection handoffs every 20 to 30 seconds, and timing mismatches caused by distance and satellite motion. 

The study said these limits arise amid the broader challenge of adapting ground-based 4G and 5G standards to rapidly moving satellites, rather than from issues unique to any single network. Both Starlink and AST SpaceMobile are pursuing legacy handset compatibility as a core part of their direct-to-device strategies. 

SpaceX IPO Hopes Fuel ASTS Retail Interest 

Starlink remains the world's largest satellite communications constellation, operated by Elon Musk's SpaceX. The service counts 10 million monthly active users — a figure projected to exceed 25 million by year-end — and is reportedly on track to generate $9 billion in revenue this year.

SpaceX is exploring one of the largest initial public offerings ever, with valuations discussed as high as $1.75 trillion. The potential listing has boosted retail sentiment for space-linked stocks, including ASTS, whose retail investors see a SpaceX IPO as a possible catalyst for renewed interest across the sector. 

ASTS Setbacks Cloud Rollout Strategy

Investor sentiment for ASTS has taken a knock lately after the Federal Communications Commission dismissed requests from several satellite operators, including AST SpaceMobile, seeking expanded access to portions of the 1.5 GHz and 2 GHz mobile-satellite spectrum.

That was partially offset by a separate FCC decision last week approving ASTS to launch and operate an expanded constellation of up to 248 low Earth orbit satellites as part of its SpaceMobile service, which delivers cellular broadband directly to standard smartphones. The authorization covers 700 MHz and 800 MHz low-band spectrum and is designed to plug directly into the existing networks of carrier partners Verizon, AT&T, and FirstNet.

Investors are also keenly eyeing ASTS' constellation progress following the Blue Origin New Glenn Mission-3 launch anomaly, which failed to place BlueBird-7 in its planned orbit on April 19. AST SpaceMobile said production of its next-generation BlueBird satellites is ongoing, with BlueBird-8 through BlueBird-10 expected to be ready for shipment in roughly 30 days as the company prepares its next launch campaign.

Last week, BofA Securities analyst Michael Funk acknowledged the BlueBird-7 miss as a negative development but said it does not fundamentally change AST SpaceMobile's business case. The more pressing concern, he noted, is the risk it creates for the company's revised target of approximately 45 satellites in orbit by the end of 2026. Assuming launches every 1 to 2 months and an average of 5.5 satellites per launch, BofA estimates the company could fall short of that target by about seven satellites.

How Do Retail Traders Feel About ASTS?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for ASTS declined to 'neutral' from 'extremely bullish' levels amid the regulatory setbacks, alongside 'normal' message volume.

One user said, "Give me the added hype from SpaceX IPO soon. I neeeeds it."

Another user said, "I believe in this stock. Plus when Space X actually IPO who knows what's the ceiling for this."

For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.

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