ASTS Stock Hits Fresh 52-Week Low, But Clear Street Sees Six-Month Lead Over SpaceX

• Clear Street noted that both AST and SpaceX face launch risk and that AST remains roughly six months ahead of SpaceX in the direct-to-cell race.
• Piper, meanwhile, cited reduced confidence in the pace of AST’s satellite launches in 2026 and 2027.
• Piper argued that if SpaceX sought to disadvantage mobile network operators, it could theoretically limit launch availability for partners such as AST or pressure pricing.

Clear Street on Tuesday reiterated a ‘Buy’ rating and $115 price target on AST SpaceMobile (ASTS), arguing that near-term launch constraints are widely recognized while the market may be underestimating risks facing rival SpaceX (SPCX).

The firm noted that AST currently relies on SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket, with investors closely monitoring any delays. That pressure could ease if alternative vehicles return to service, particularly Blue Origin’s New Glenn, which can carry up to eight of AST’s BlueBird satellites per flight compared with three on a Falcon 9. Clear Street added that both companies face launch risk and that AST remains roughly six months ahead of SpaceX in the direct-to-cell race.

Clear Street Reiteration Lands Amid Fresh 52-Week Low

Clear Street’s reiteration came as AST shares touched a fresh 52-week low and closed roughly 9% lower on Tuesday, after Piper Sandler downgraded the stock to Neutral from Overweight and cut its price target to $54 from $98.

Piper cited reduced confidence in the pace of AST’s satellite launches in 2026 and 2027. The firm said it was “struck” by SpaceX’s expanding ambitions in the direct-to-cell market, highlighted by the company’s agreement to acquire a nationwide portfolio of low-band 800 MHz spectrum from Grain Management for about $8 billion last week.

Piper argued that if SpaceX sought to disadvantage mobile network operators, it could theoretically limit launch availability for partners such as AST or pressure pricing through its own service offerings. Piper still holds a constructive longer-term view beyond 2027, suggesting SpaceX’s aggression could push carriers toward independent providers.

How AST SpaceMobile And SpaceX Compete

AST SpaceMobile and SpaceX compete in the emerging market for direct-to-cell service that connects ordinary smartphones via satellite. AST pursues a carrier-partnership model, working with mobile operators that hold spectrum and customer relationships; its large BlueBird satellites are designed to supplement existing networks and fill coverage gaps.

SpaceX, through Starlink Mobile, is building a denser constellation and has moved to own more spectrum itself, including a recent low-band purchase, which could allow it to operate more independently and compete more directly with traditional carriers. The two also differ in launch access: AST currently depends on Falcon 9 capacity controlled by SpaceX, while SpaceX launches its own satellites.

AST Spacemobile Makes Progress With Bluebird Satellites

Recent AST progress includes the arrival of BlueBird satellites 14, 15, and 16 at Cape Canaveral ahead of a planned Falcon 9 launch, following prior deployments that brought the in-orbit count higher. No firm date has been set for the next flight.

Analysts remain divided: while Piper reduced near-term expectations, Deutsche Bank upgraded the stock to Buy on Monday, noting that the stock is significantly below its May highs and highlighting positive developments in recent times that “have gone under the radar.”

How Did ASTS retail traders React?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around ASTS stock stayed within the bullish territory over the past 24 hours, while message volume stayed at extremely high levels.

A Stocktwits user expressed disappointment about the company not announcing a launch date for Bluebird satellites 14, 15, and 16.

Another user said that the company is “not executing,” highlighting delays in satellite launches.

ASTS stock has dropped about 35% year-to-date. 

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