ASTS Stock Edges Up Overnight: US-Japan Tech Statement Backs Rakuten Tie-Up, But Launch Questions Linger

• Telus and AST completed their first network integration test, advancing satellite-powered broadband, voice and messaging services expected within a year.
• Blair expects fewer than 20 satellites in orbit by year-end, but AST’s revised target is about 45 by early 2027.
• BlueBirds 14-16 have departed for Cape Canaveral, but AST has not announced a launch date.

Shares of AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS) rose 0.3% overnight heading into Tuesday as a U.S.-Japan tech cooperation statement highlighted its Rakuten partnership, putting its international ambitions in focus even as satellite launch delays drew analyst scrutiny. 

ASTS stock closed marginally lower at $58.44 on Monday, following a 2% gain in the previous session. 

US-Japan Statement Highlights Rakuten Partnership

The governments of the U.S. and Japan welcomed cooperation between Japan’s Rakuten Group and U.S.-based AST SpaceMobile “for the development and deployment of Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite infrastructure,” according to a joint statement released by the State Department on Tuesday.

The statement followed a Monday meeting in Kyoto between White House science and technology chief Michael Kratsios and Japan’s science and technology policy minister Toshiharu Furukawa to review progress under the U.S.-Japan Technology Prosperity Deal signed last year.

Both countries also committed to expanding digital connectivity cooperation across the Indo-Pacific, including through government financing and assistance where available, and advancing joint research on technologies relevant to Beyond 5G and 6G.

Telus Clears Satellite Test

Telus and AST SpaceMobile said on Monday they completed their first integration test between the Canadian carrier’s wireless network and AST’s space-based network, advancing plans for broadband data, voice calls and text messaging directly between satellites and eligible smartphones.

Telus expects service within the next year, extending connectivity beyond conventional towers without special equipment. Potential uses include reaching 9-1-1, staying connected during wilderness travel and supporting workers in remote and northern communities.

Launch Delays Trigger Analyst Revenue Cut

William Blair reiterated its 'Market Perform' rating but reduced its 2027 revenue estimate to $459 million from $752 million, a cut of $293 million, or about 39%, citing slower BlueBird II launches and shipment delays.

At the current pace, the firm assumes fewer than 20 satellites will be in orbit by year-end, compared with AST’s earlier expectation of at least 45.  AST had already pushed that timetable back. A July disclosure moved the 45-satellite target to early 2027, and the company reiterated the same timing on its August earnings call. President Scott Wisniewski said at the time that 25 satellites would provide about half-day U.S. coverage, putting Blair’s year-end assumption below the threshold.

ASTS Investors Await Next Satellites’ Launch

AST said at the end of last month that BlueBirds 14, 15 and 16 had left its Texas facility for Cape Canaveral. “Another convoy is on the move,” the company posted. “Next stop: orbit.” AST did not announce a launch date. Investor speculation about a late-October Falcon 9 slot remains unconfirmed.

The shipment followed the August launch of BlueBirds 11-13. CEO Abel Avellan subsequently said BlueBird 11 was fully deployed and all 13 spacecraft were performing well, addressing concerns about its array deployment. AST said production was advancing through BlueBird 50, with more than 20 spacecraft structures in integration. The company aims to ramp toward six fully assembled satellites a month.

On the August call, Wisniewski said 10 launches were booked with two providers, targeting one every month or two on average. On Blue Origin’s New Glenn returning in 2026, he said: “They're targeting this year. We're not betting on that necessarily,” adding that AST was not relying on it in its numbers.

Rising Costs Cloud ASTS Outlook

The Blair note also followed B. Riley’s Friday downgrade to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' and price-target reduction to $65 from $85. The revised target still implies about a 11% upside from current levels. B. Riley cited a balanced risk/reward outlook, stronger competitive alternatives, a delayed launch and rising constellation costs, potentially including additional spectrum.

The firm also questioned how much consumers would pay for added space-based connectivity as lower-cost competitors serving multiple operators, including Viasat (VSAT), emerge.

How Do Retail Traders Feel About ASTS?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for ASTS jumped to ‘bullish’ from ‘neutral’ levels a week ago amid a 473% surge in 24-hour message volumes.

One investor said AST was “Continuously winning…” while sharing the announcement. Another said, “I'm switching my family from Rogers to Telus because of ASTS.”

The enthusiasm contrasted with a bearish response to William Blair’s note. One user called the firm “too kind”, dismissing AST as “a hobby, not a business.”

ASTS stock has declined 20% year-to-date.

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