ATAI Stock Eyes Rocketing Back To 4-Year Highs: VC Sees Up to 105% Takeover Premium From Eli Lilly

• Sigurdsson sees a likely acquisition price of $9 to $11 per share.
• BPL-003 showed rapid depression relief, with benefits lasting up to eight weeks after one dose.
• New FDA guidance sets stricter standards for psychedelic trial design, monitoring and long-term follow-up.

Shares of AtaiBeckley, Inc. (ATAI) surged nearly 60% overnight late Wednesday, eyeing a return to highs last seen in April 2022, after reports said that Eli Lilly is in takeover talks. A venture capitalist now says that the deal is highly likely and that $9 per share may be the floor.

ATAI stock is now up 4% for the week, putting it on track to finish in the green. 

Eli Lilly Could Offer Double For ATAI?

Magnus Sigurdsson, co-founder of Systematic Ventures and partner at Iron Pine Ventures, said on X that the talks appear to be the culmination of a structured banking process that AtaiBeckley began around its lead drug, BPL-003, in March. He also said: “$LLY appears to have decided that buying the entire company was preferable to licensing or purchasing only the drug, likely remaining negotiation is over valuation and risk-sharing.” Sigurdsson estimated a likely takeover price of $9 to $11 per share, with the top end representing a 105% upside from the last close.

He added that a rival bidder is “unlikely” given the formal sale process, though a competing offer remains the key source of upside for investors.

Lilly could announce an acquisition as soon as this week and is reportedly negotiating at a premium to AtaiBeckley’s $2 billion market value. A takeover would expand Lilly’s neuroscience portfolio and mark a major Big Pharma move into psychedelic medicine.

ATAI Touts Shorter Psychedelic Session 

AtaiBeckley’s lead drug, BPL-003, is a fast-acting nasal treatment for treatment-resistant depression that has received FDA Breakthrough Therapy designation. Mid-stage studies showed improvement in depressive symptoms within two days after a single dose, with benefits lasting up to eight weeks. Its main advantage is a shorter clinical session. 

Speaking at the HCW Neuro Perspectives Conference last month, CEO Srinivas Rao said BPL-003 was designed around a two-hour treatment window similar to Johnson & Johnson's Spravato, with psychedelic effects largely resolving within 90 minutes.  The company has begun Phase 3 trials and said the FDA is comfortable with eligible patients being discharged after 2 hours.

FDA Sets Rules For Psychedelic Studies 

The takeover speculation follows the FDA’s final guidance for psychedelic drug trials, which sets expectations around study design, safety monitoring, abuse potential and durability of treatment response. The FDA acknowledged that psychedelic trials face unusual challenges, particularly “functional unblinding,” as patients and clinicians can often tell whether an active drug was administered.

The agency also recommended evaluating treatment effects at 12 weeks, monitoring patients longer term, and documenting expected effects such as hallucinations and altered cognition as adverse events.

How Do Retail Traders Feel About ATAI?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for ATAI was ‘extremely bullish’ amid ‘extremely high’ message volume.

One user said, “Angermayer (founder) is not out here just trying to make a deal, he wants to make a Statement! He knows he's sitting on a revolutionary product / treatment that is in demand Worldwide. This deal should put ATAI on the map across the Globe.”

Another user said, “$ATAI = you know its all those TD Cowen, Jefferies and JP Morgan  boys running to buy it up as soon as they made the deal today!!”

ATAI stock has more than doubled over the past year. 

For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.

Read Next: ASTS Stock Extends Selloff Overnight: Analyst Thinks It's About To Buy A Rocket Company With $1B Raise