Black Cautions Tesla Shareholders On SpaceX Merger Risks: Says Marvell-Lumentum Deal Reaction Offers Early Warning

• A SpaceX-Tesla combination, given its size and complexity, could face similar pressures as the Marvell-Lumentum deal, he noted.
• Black sees TSLA and SPCX merging in a stock-for-stock deal, where SpaceX will acquire Tesla at a 20-25% premium.
• In late October, Elon Musk confirmed that special committees of independent directors at both Tesla and SpaceX had been established to explore a possible combination.

Gary Black, Managing Partner at The Future Fund, on Monday urged Tesla investors to moderate their enthusiasm for a potential merger with SpaceX, citing the market reaction to Marvell Technology’s recently announced acquisition of Lumentum Holdings as an example.

Black said in a post on X that in large, complex all-stock transactions with extended timelines, traders typically sell the acquirer’s shares, reducing the effective value delivered to the target’s shareholders. A SpaceX-Tesla combination, given its size and complexity, could face similar pressures, he noted.

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Marvell’s All-Stock Acquisition Of Lumentum

Earlier on Monday, Marvell agreed to buy optical components maker Lumentum in an all-stock transaction. Lumentum shareholders will receive 4.5 Marvell shares for each of theirs, equating to a roughly 24% premium based on the companies’ closing prices on Oct. 28, the last trading day before Bloomberg reported on the deal talks. The deal is expected to close in the first half of 2028, creating a combined company with a total addressable market of $550 billion.

Shares of Marvell have fallen about 26% since reports of the talks surfaced the previous week, Black noted. At the time of writing, LITE was down 14% while MRVL slipped 8%.

SpaceX And Tesla Merger Talks

In late October, Elon Musk confirmed that special committees of independent directors at both Tesla and SpaceX had been established to explore a possible combination. Musk described the idea as having significant merit because of overlapping work in artificial intelligence, robotics, chip design, and connectivity. He is not participating in the discussions, he said, while adding that talks are ongoing and there is no certainty of a deal.

Black sees TSLA and SPCX merging in a stock-for-stock deal, where SpaceX will acquire Tesla at a 20-25% premium. However, he also noted that “it’s irrelevant” as traders will whittle down SPCX price and subsequently the deal premium after the announcement.

How Did TSLA, SPCX Retail Traders React?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around TSLA and SPCX stock stayed within the 'bearish' territory over the past 24 hours, while message volume stayed at 'low' to 'normal' levels.

TSLA stock is down 8% year-to-date. SPCX, meanwhile, is trading around $141, above its IPO price of $135 but below its all-time highs near $226. 

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