COIN, CRCL Stocks Have ‘Outsized’ Bitcoin Recovery Leverage, Says William Blair

• William Blair reduced its 2026 and 2027 revenue estimates for Coinbase and cut EBITDA projections by 34% for both years.
• According to William Blair, Bitcoin’s price remains the key catalyst for sentiment across crypto-linked equities.
• Piper Sandler lowered its price target on Coinbase, citing growing competition from perpetual futures and prediction markets.

Shares of Coinbase (COIN) and Circle (CRCL) rose in midday trade on Wednesday after William Blair said the key risks facing both companies are already reflected in investor expectations, adding that each offers "outsized leverage to a bitcoin recovery."

COIN’s stock rose over 2%, while shares of Circle rose nearly 3% in midday trade. On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around both companies trended in ‘bullish’ territory over the past day. While CRCL’s stock saw chatter at ‘high’ levels, Coinbase message volumes trended at ‘normal’ levels.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s price was struggling to stay above the $65,000 mark. The apex cryptocurrency rose around 0.5% in the last 24 hours, trading at around $64,900 after hitting an intra-day high of $65,500.

William Blair Sees Upside Despite Estimate Cuts

William Blair stated that investors should stay involved in Coinbase as spot trading volume potentially bottoms out, but did not call for near-term gains. The firm expects consensus estimates across the sector to keep falling and cut its own expectations from Coinbase accordingly. 

William Blair lowered its 2026 revenue estimates for Coinbase by 12% and by 13% for 2027. It also slashed earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) estimates by 34% in both years. 

The firm added that while EBITDA "seems set to trough" in the second half of 2026, it is likely to rebound in 2027.

Piper Sandler Flags Competitive Pressures

Meanwhile, Piper Sandler cut its price target on Coinbase. Analyst Patrick Moley lowered his outlook to $155 from $170 while maintaining a ‘Neutral’ rating. Moley noted that while the cryptocurrency market has been subdued, options volumes hit record levels, and U.S. cash equities posted their strongest volume quarter on record. 

According to him, prediction markets and perpetual futures "were the story" of Q2, with the World Cup driving what he called "massive" growth across the prediction market industry. 

Heading into the third quarter (Q3), Moley flagged "significant investor attention on the perpetual future threat," a competitive dynamic worth watching for Coinbase given how much trading volume has migrated toward those newer product categories.

COIN’s stock has fallen nearly 30% this year, while CRCL’s stock has dropped almost 20%. 

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