Deckers Was Running Past Nike At The Perfect Moment — Then A Trump Tariff-Sized Hurdle Appeared

• Hoka’s Clifton and Bondi have emerged as runners' favourites for their comfort and eye-catching colours and designs.
• According to data from Consumer Edge, Deckers’ market share has dropped from the 10% seen in December last year to 8% in November this year in the direct-to-consumer channel.
• Deckers Outdoor has been increasing prices on most of its products since the beginning of July and has noted that this could lead to a more choosy consumer.

A few years ago, as Nike began to lose its footing amid an innovation lull, cracks started to show in the once-unconquerable sportswear giant. That stumble gave way to a new generation of challengers, some longtime players and others, fresh disruptors. Among the biggest winners was Hoka, Deckers Outdoor’s performance-running brand that surged into the mainstream with a unique approach to footwear.

With their featherlight design and eye-catching colors, Hoka’s Clifton and Bondi have struck a chord with runners craving comfort without sacrificing style — and, more importantly, have chipped away at market share long dominated by Nike and Adidas. Alongside Roger Federer-backed On Holdings, Hoka rode a wave of strong growth and cultural relevance. But just as momentum was building, a familiar macro threat has re-entered the frame: Trump tariffs, now poised to disrupt costs, pricing power, and the very vibe that fueled the rise of these once-nimble challengers.

Trump Tariffs And Higher Prices

A major blow for sportswear companies struggling to spur demand was not cautious consumer sentiment, but the tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump on global trading partners, mainly South Asian countries.

South Asian countries such as Vietnam and Indonesia are the biggest manufacturing hubs for these sportswear companies, and tariffs on them have made their products more expensive.

Deckers Outdoor has been increasing prices on most of its products since the beginning of July and has noted that this could lead to a more choosy consumer.

“For the back half, we are anticipating a more cautious consumer, as the full impact of tariffs and price increases will be felt here in the U.S.,” Stefano Caroti said in October.

Steve Fasching said that as U.S. consumers begin to see price increases, this is affecting their purchase behavior in the consumer discretionary space. “As we now look out at the next six months to give the full-year guidance, our Hoka back half still is a low-teens guide,” Fasching said.

Deckers’ Sales Slowing

Wall Street analysts have said that the exponential growth Hoka saw has now started to slow, with quarterly sales now showing it. Telsey Advisory Group’s analyst Dana Telsey said that during the second quarter, within the topline, both Hoka and UGG sequentially decelerated. However, UGG outperformed market expectations, while Hoka was in line with them.

In October, Bank of America, following the quarterly results, said it thinks the company's low-teens guidance for Hoka sales growth in the second half is "achievable," but adds that fierce competition from both larger and smaller competitors could make share gains more complicated to come by next year.

Bank of America said its base case includes Hoka sales slowing to 7% in fiscal 2027 from 14% in fiscal 2026. UGG boots by Deckers have become a go-to choice for many consumers in recent quarters, with innovation and new launches keeping customers in the loop.

Market Share Of Deckers

According to data from Consumer Edge, Deckers’ market share has dropped from the 10% seen in December last year to 8% in November this year in the direct-to-consumer channel. Consistent declines in market share have been observed throughout the year, marking a different year for the company.

Last week, Guggenheim analyst Simeon Siegel initiated coverage of Deckers Outdoor with a ‘Neutral’ rating and said that the retail sector still seems to be perceived as "structurally sick," but noted that the "holiday brought the cheer."

How Are Stocktwits Users Reacting?

Retail sentiment on Deckers was in the ‘bearish’ territory compared to the ‘bullish’ a week ago, with message volumes at ‘low’ levels, according to data from Stocktwits.

The stock has seen a nearly 90% jump in users on Stocktwits, adding it to their watchlist in the last year.

Sentiment on Nike improved to ‘bullish’ from ‘bearish’ a week ago. At the same time, on Lululemon, it jumped to ‘extremely bullish’ from ‘bullish’ during the same period, driven by the news of CEO Calvin McDonald stepping down in January.

Shares of Deckers have lost more than half of their value this year, and Nike’s stock has declined 9% while Lululemon’s shares have fallen more than 46% year-to-date.

For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.

Also See: Coca-Cola And McDonald’s Learn The Hard Way That ‘AI Slop’ Ads Just Won’t Cut It Emotionally With Consumers

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