Delta Air Lines Q3 Earnings Preview: Margins In Focus, Analysts Wary Of US Shutdown Impact

Delta Air Lines (DAL) is scheduled to kick off air carrier earnings on Thursday, which will be closely watched by Wall Street analysts for demand trends heading into the final months of the year.

According to Fiscal.ai data, the biggest U.S. airline in terms of market capitalization is expected to report earnings of $1.52 per share on revenue of $15.96 billion for the quarter ended Sept. 30. Retail sentiment on Stocktwits about Delta was in the ‘extremely bullish’ territory at the time of writing, while retail chatter was ‘extremely high.’

One Stocktwits user wrote that the entire airline sector could surge significantly on Thursday if the U.S. government shutdown, which has caused some operational problems due to staff shortage, is lifted and Delta Air Lines posts an upbeat earnings report.

In April, Delta, along with many other U.S. airlines, including American Airlines (AAL) and JetBlue Airways (JBLU), withdrew its annual expectations for the year, as the tariff war had resulted in economic uncertainty and a decline in consumer confidence during the first half of the year.

However, Delta unveiled a new forecast in July and has earmarked “solid” corporate bookings and high-yield leisure travel as key drivers of earnings during the fall season. Last month, Delta CEO Ed Bastian stated that the carrier, along with rival United Airlines Holdings, would generate the majority of the industry's profits.

Last week, Jefferies analysts noted that Delta’s third-quarter outlook was raised to a range of 2% to 4% from flat to 4% growth, giving the brokerage "enough confidence" in the topline for the fourth quarter and 2026, indicating that margin expansion is on the way.

Seaport Research analyst Daniel McKenzie still warned that the government shutdown will likely lead to the airlines providing a conservative outlook. However, he said that a resilient economy, along with a ‘tightish’ supply/demand backdrop, is giving the industry ample pricing power to continue restoring lost earnings.

“Delta is the cleanest story with the best upside surprise potential, though we expect the entire group to move modestly higher in the fourth quarter on improved sentiment around a 2026 earnings recovery,” McKenzie said.

Delta stock has fallen 5.2% this year, underperforming the benchmark S&P 500 index.

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