Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq Futures Flip Higher After Trump Signals Iran War Wind-Down: Why USO, MU, TSLA, NKE, INTC Are Trending

• The S&P 500 is over 9% below its high, while the Nasdaq-100 remains in correction territory, about 12% off peak.
• Oil eased slightly after recent war-driven spikes, with WTI near $101.82 and Brent around $111.44.
• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the U.S. expects to restore freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz over time through escort operations.

U.S. stock futures flipped sharply higher late Monday after reports that U.S. President Donald Trump is willing to end the Iran campaign even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, easing near-term escalation concerns for investors.

As of 10.40 p.m. ET, the Nasdaq 100, the S&P 500 and Dow futures were all up nearly 1%.

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment toward the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) was ‘extremely bearish’ amid ‘high’ message volume, while sentiment toward the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (DIA) was ‘bearish’ amid ‘normal’ message volume.

US Market Drivers

Futures strengthened after The Wall Street Journal reported, citing administration officials, that the White House is prepared to wind down the current phase of military operations against Iran even without immediately reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

Officials reportedly assessed that reopening the chokepoint could extend the war beyond the administration’s expected four-to-six-week timeline and instead plan to pressure Tehran diplomatically, while encouraging allies in Europe and the Gulf to play a larger role in restoring shipping access.

The S&P 500 has logged three straight losses and sits over 9% below its high, while the Nasdaq 100 remains in correction territory after a roughly 12% drop from its October record. Wall Street is also coming off its fifth straight weekly decline amid energy-driven growth and inflation concerns. Here are the prior session’s index moves:

Oil remained elevated but showed signs of easing after recent war-driven gains. West Texas Intermediate crude slipped about 1.03% to $101.82 per barrel, while Brent crude declined roughly 1.19% to $111.44 after both benchmarks recently climbed to their highest levels since 2022 amid concerns over disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz. 

The surge in crude earlier followed the arrival of additional U.S. troops in the region and the entry of Iran-backed Houthi militants into the conflict. The Strait of Hormuz, which typically handles roughly one-fifth of global oil flows, remains restricted to limited vessel traffic after Tehran formalized control of the artery and imposed transit fees.

Two Chinese state-owned container ships were attempting to exit Hormuz on Monday, while Iran also attacked a Kuwaiti crude carrier near Dubai, according to Kuwait Petroleum Corp. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox News that the U.S. expects to restore freedom of navigation through Hormuz over time through U.S. or multinational escorts.

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Monday that the U.S. is in “serious discussions” with a “more reasonable” Iranian regime and added that “great progress has been made” toward ending military operations. He also warned that if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened soon, the U.S. could target Iran’s electric infrastructure, oil wells and Kharg Island, which handles roughly 90% of the country’s crude exports.

Despite those risks, Trump said Tehran has already accepted most elements of a 15-point U.S. proposal and agreed to allow an additional 20 oil ships to cross the Strait.

Foundation for Defense of Democracies CEO Mark Dubowitz warned on X that absent a deal, Iran’s economy is “headed toward collapse,” citing worsening macro conditions and infrastructure damage that have historically triggered protests during prior crises.

Meanwhile, Powell said inflation expectations remain “well anchored beyond the short term,” adding that policymakers are not yet facing a decision on whether to respond to energy-driven inflation pressures as the economic impact remains uncertain. 

Dan Greenhaus, strategist at Solus Alternative Asset Management, said on X that a 10% decline from the S&P 500's highs is “a meaningful decline” that has historically often been a buying opportunity. “But the key variable is that none of those declines were commensurate with a recession (ex-COVID). That's what matters,” Greenhaus said. 

Trending Stocks To Watch On NYSE, Nasdaq

United States Oil Fund (USO): Shares slipped about 2.3% overnight as crude prices pulled back, with Brent and WTI retreating more than 1% after reports that Trump may end the Iran campaign even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed.

Micron Technology (MU): Shares fell 9.9% Monday, extending a post-earnings slide that has pushed the stock down roughly 30% from its March 18 peak amid concerns over the efficiency of AI memory demand after Google unveiled technology that could reduce memory needs in AI models.

Tesla (TSLA): Shares fell nearly 2% Monday to a six-month low ahead of its April 2 Q1 delivery report as Canaccord cut its price target to $420 despite maintaining a ‘Buy’ rating, while GLJ Research reiterated a ‘Sell’ rating with a $24.86 target.

Nike (NKE): Shares rose nearly 1% after hours ahead of Q3 results due Tuesday, while Jefferies reiterated a ‘Buy ' rating and $110 price target, citing cleaner inventories and improving North America and wholesale momentum.

Intel (INTC): Shares hit nearly a three-month low on Monday as the company prepares to roll out commercial PCs featuring its 18A process and Core Ultra Series 3 platform starting Tuesday.

How Global Markets Are Performing Today

In broader markets, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note was about 4.35%, while gold traded near $4,507 an ounce. 

Asian markets were mixed, with MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan edging lower, as equities opened higher in Australia and lower in Japan.

Among the catalysts for the day are the S&P Case-Shiller home price index, Chicago PMI data, February job openings, and March consumer confidence readings, along with remarks from Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, Fed Governor Michael Barr and Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman. 

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