UnitedHealth Stock Touted For 36% Gain? JPMorgan Points To Medicare Advantage Margin Tailwind

JPMorgan analyst Lisa Gill upgraded UnitedHealth Group's target price to $418 from $405 and maintained an Overweight rating after meeting with the company’s management. 

The new price target represents a 36% upside from the stock’s last close.

Gill updated her estimates to reflect lower Medicare Advantage enrollment growth in 2025 and 2026 as the company plans to exit unprofitable plans and prioritize margin discipline.

She noted that if the company reaches the low end of its targeted 3%–5% margin range in Medicare Advantage, it could deliver meaningful upside to current consensus expectations. 

However, JPMorgan’s base case assumes the margin remains below that threshold in 2026, despite management signaling that 3% is an “aspiration” by that year.

The analyst commentary comes amid broader policy uncertainty, as Senate Republicans push forward with more stringent Medicaid reductions than those proposed by the House to support U.S. President Donald Trump’s tax package.

Unlike the House draft, the Senate proposal leaves Medicare largely untouched, benefiting major insurers including UnitedHealth, Humana, Cigna, Elevance Health, and CVS Health. 

However, it proposes tighter Medicaid work mandates and state funding caps that could impact enrollment and reimbursement for providers operating in expansion and non-expansion states.

The legislation also drops proposed changes to Medicare pharmacy benefit managers (PBMs), a relief to firms like UnitedHealth and Cigna, while banning spread pricing and phasing Medicaid reimbursements down to Medicare rates.

Medicaid primarily serves low‑income individuals and families and is jointly funded and administered by federal and state governments.

Meanwhile, Medicare is a federally run insurance program for people age 65 and older, regardless of income .

UNH stock has declined 39.1% so far in 2025.

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