Lemonade Stock Slumps In Extended Trading After Tepid 2025 Outlook, Retail Mood Dampens

Lemonade (LMND) stock fell 15.2% after the bell after the digital insurer forecasted 2025 revenue below Wall Street’s estimates.

The company projected revenue to be between $655 million and $657 million this year, while analysts, on average, expect the company to post $663.4 million in revenue.

Lemonade also projected first-quarter revenue between $143 million and $145 million, compared with Wall Street’s estimated $152 million.

The company projected a full-year adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) loss of between $140 million and $135 million and a first-quarter adjusted EBITDA loss in the range of $49 million to $46 million.

Its adjusted EBITDA outlook for the first quarter and full year contained an estimated $20
million unfavorable impact due to the California wildfires. In previous regulatory filings, Lemonade called California its "largest market for car insurance."

Lemonade’s net loss during the fourth quarter narrowed to $30 million from $42.4 million last year.

The company’s total customers rose to 2.43 million from 2.03 million at the end of the fourth quarter.

Its total revenue rose to $148.8 million for the three months ended Dec. 31, from $115.5 million for the same period last year.

The company added that it is on track to deliver positive adjusted EBITDA in 2026.

Retail sentiment on Stocktwits plunged to ‘neutral’ (51/100) territory from ‘extremely bullish’ (80/100) a day ago, while retail chatter jumped to ‘extremely high.’

One user called the stock overvalued and expected it to trade at a price range between $15 and $17.

Over the past year, Lemonade stock has gained 78.6%.

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