Nasdaq, S&P 500 Tread Water As Wall Street Braces For Nvidia Earnings, Jobs Data — Is Year-End Rally Already In Trouble?

• The S&P has now clocked losses for four straight sessions.
• A fund manager said no one doubts AI-related productivity gains. 
• The uncertainty centers on when productivity will ramp and where and how profits will be made.

Trading in the major index futures points to a cautious start on Wednesday as the Nvidia earnings day beckons. The fiscal 2026 third-quarter earnings from the artificial intelligence (AI) stalwart could be a make-or-break event for the market. But before seeing off the key catalyst, traders may also have to contend with the September jobs report, due ahead of the market open.

Fund manager Louis Navellier expressed apprehension about the likelihood of the typical Santa Claus year-end rally. “Selling is accelerating and feeding on itself,” he said. “It's a broad-based sell-off, on pace for the worst November since 2008.” 

Navellier said no one doubts AI-related productivity gains. “The uncertainty is centered around the timing of when the productivity will ramp and where and how the profits will be made,” he added.

How Futures Are Trading

As of 3:50 a.m. ET on Wednesday, the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, Dow and Russell 2000 futures all moved marginally on either side of the unchanged line.

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment toward the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), an exchange-traded fund that tracks the S&P 500 Index, worsened to ‘bearish’ as of early Wednesday from ‘neutral’ a day ago. The Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) ETF, which tracks the Nasdaq 100 Index, continued to elicit ‘neutral’ sentiment. The message volume on the SPY and QQQ ETF streams remained at ‘high’ levels.

Commenting on the SPY stream, a bearish watcher said Nvidia earnings are already priced in.

Another user said the breadth is nowhere near oversold levels, even on the short-term timeframe. “Not buying the dip yet,” they said.

How Markets Fared Tuesday

The market sell-off continued on Tuesday, with consumer discretionary and IT stocks performing the worst. Big techs came in for particular punishment amid intensifying concerns about the AI bubble. The S&P 500 fell for a fourth straight session, the longest streak since August. 

The QQQ, SPY, and SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (DIA) slumped 0.84%, 1.22%,  and 1.08%, respectively, while the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) ended up 0.31%.

Key Catalysts To Watch Out For

The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) September jobs data is due at 8:30 a.m. ET. The report’s release was delayed by the government shutdown, which ended earlier this month. The agency will also release the weekly jobless claims data for the week that ended Nov. 15, also around the same time. 

The National Association of Realtors will release the existing home sales report for October at 10 a.m. ET.

Among the Federal Reserve officials speaking during the day are Governor Lisa Cook (11 a.m. ET) and Chicago Fed’s Austan Goolsbee (1:40 p.m. ET). Fed Governor Stephen Miran and the Philadelphia Fed’s Anna Pauson will make public appearances after the market closes.

Aside from Nvidia, other notable names reporting earnings on Wednesday are Bullish (BLSH), Lowe’s (LOW), Target (TGT), TJX Companies (TJX), Williams-Sonoma (WSM), Wix.com (WIX), Jack In the Box (JACK), Kulicke & Soffa (KLIC), Palo Alto Networks (PANW).

How Other Markets Fared

Crude oil futures fell sharply early Wednesday after the substantial gains recorded for the previous session, and gold futures advanced. The 10-year Treasury note edged up after pulling back on Tuesday, and the U.S. dollar firmed against most major counterparts.

The mood in major Asian markets was largely somber, reflecting Wall Street’s overnight plunge, though some markets eked out modest gains.

For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.

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