Nifty’s Dhanteras 2025 Setup Signals Bull Run To 30,000, Says Analyst Rajneesh Sharma

Festive fervor on Dalal Street pushed the Indian equity markets over a 1-year high on Monday. Nifty’s bullish run extended to a third day as the index closed 0.5% higher at 25,843.15.

This is an entirely different scenario from a year earlier, when, on Dhanteras 2024, the Nifty 50 was flashing clear warning signals, said SEBI-registered analyst Rajneesh Sharma.

The index had slipped below its rising channel near 24,180, momentum indicators were rolling over, and a bearish moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) crossover hinted at fatigue. Those red flags played out swiftly with the index correcting nearly 10%, and bottoming around 22,000 by March/April 2025.

Fast forward to Dhanteras 2025, and the tone couldn’t be more different. The Nifty has not only recovered but is displaying strong technical resilience, Sharma noted.

Trading over 25,800, up around 7% from last year, the index has reclaimed key trendlines and formed a solid base, setting the stage for a potential breakout phase.

Nifty’s Breakout

The weekly chart now shows a cup and handle pattern with a breakout zone near 25,800, a move above which could propel the index toward 29,000 - 30,000.

On the daily chart, a bullish flag breakout points to near-term targets of 27,500 - 28,000, while an inverse head and shoulders pattern reinforces the bullish setup, Sharma added. Adding to the optimism, Nifty has also broken a long-term descending trendline, with the relative strength index (RSI) confirming a decisive momentum shift.

However, caution still applies as volume confirmation is still awaited, and minor RSI divergences linger. Global macro shifts or sudden policy moves could also test the rally’s strength, the analyst stated.

Still, the broader structure suggests a market preparing for its next leg higher. A decisive close above 25,800 - 26,000 with rising volumes could mark the official start of Nifty’s next bull wave.

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