PGY Stock Tanks 26% Today – Q4 Revenue Misses Wall Street Expectations

• Pagaya reported earnings per share of $0.8, beating analyst estimates of an EPS of $0.34.
• However, the company’s revenue of $321 million missed the estimated $349 million, according to Stocktwits data.
• Prior to the fourth quarter, Pagaya beat earnings expectations in three out of the previous four quarters, while its revenue surpassed estimates in four out of the past four quarters.

Pagaya Technologies (PGY) shares fell nearly 26% in Monday’s opening trade as the artificial intelligence-powered lender’s fourth-quarter (Q4) revenue missed Wall Street expectations.

Pagaya reported earnings per share (EPS) of $0.8, beating analyst estimates of an EPS of $0.34. However, the company’s revenue of $321 million missed the estimated $349 million, according to Stocktwits data.

Prior to Q4, Pagaya had beaten earnings expectations in three of the previous four quarters, while its revenue had surpassed estimates in all four.

“Looking ahead, we will continue to leverage our platform and our disciplined risk framework, to further bridge the gap between Main Street and Wall Street,” said Pagaya CEO and co-founder, Gal Krubiner.

Pagaya is an Israel-based financial services company that utilizes AI to evaluate loan applications, with an aim to be more precise with credit checks.

For the fiscal year 2026, Pagaya forecasts revenue in the range of $1.4 billion to $1.57 billion. At the mid-point of $1.485 billion, Pagaya’s guidance fell short of Wall Street estimates of $1.52 billion, according to TheFly.

What Are Analysts Saying?

Analysts at Freedom Capital initiated coverage of Pagaya last week, assigning a $30 price target and a ‘Buy’ rating, according to TheFly. The firm called Pagaya a leader in AI-enabled credit underwriting with a “unique” two-sided ecosystem.

According to Koyfin, of the 11 analysts covering the PGY stock, 10 have either ‘Buy’ or ‘Strong Buy’ recommendations, while one analyst has a ‘Hold’ rating. The 12-month average price target for the PGY stock is $38.18.

Pagaya’s Recent Partnerships

Pagaya entered into multiple partnerships since the beginning of 2026, with the most recent being a $800 million asset-backed securitization (ABS) transaction announced last week. The company said that 32 investors participated in the program, and since 2018, it has issued more than $34.5 billion across 85 ABS transactions with over 150 institutional investors.

In January, Pagaya entered into a new forward flow agreement with Sound Point Capital Management, under which Sound Point purchased up to $720 million in point-of-sale loans sourced through Pagaya’s platform.

PGY stock is down 34% year-to-date, but up 11% over the past 12 months.

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