RIG Stock’s 61% Run So Far This Year Heads Into Its Biggest Test Today: Earnings

• RIG stock has gained more than 61% this year. 
• For Q1 2026, Wall Street analysts expect Transocean to post a 14% revenue growth. 
• Earlier in April, Transocean announced new contracts and extensions for ultra-deepwater drillships, boosting its total backlog to about $1.6 billion.

Shares of Transocean Ltd. (RIG) were up nearly 2% in the overnight trading session headed into Monday, extending a rally of more than 61% this year as the world's largest offshore drilling contractor is slated to post its latest earnings results after market close.

Meanwhile, other energy stocks like Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) and Chevron Corp. (CVX) have gained 24.5% and 22.3% respectively in 2026. The State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE), which tracks American energy stocks, has gained nearly 29% so far this year.

RIG stock has been a beneficiary of surging oil prices this year amid a global energy supply crunch as the war in the Middle East enters its tenth week even as the critical Strait of Hormuz remains choked. At the time of writing, WTI crude oil prices remained above $100 a barrel, and Brent crude oil was trading around $106.78 a barrel.

All Eyes On Q1 Earnings 

For the first quarter (Q1) of 2026, Wall Street analysts expect Transocean to post a 14% growth in revenue, pegged at $1.03 billion. The company is also expected to post an earnings per share of $0.08 compared to a loss of $0.07 in the comparable period of 2025, according to data from Fiscal.ai.

Earlier in April, Morgan Stanley raised the price target on Transocean to $7 from $5 and kept an ‘Equal Weight’ rating on the shares, citing benefits from higher oil prices beyond the war that would likely be supportive of increased upstream capital spending.

Meanwhile, Susquehanna also raised the price target on the company to $8 from $7.50 and kept a ‘Positive’ rating on the shares as part of a Q1 preview. The Iran conflict has been a "significant positive catalyst" for commodity prices and oil and gas stocks, the analyst said, as per TheFly, adding that medium- and long-term effects of the Iran war are now more positive for the sector as supply conditions tighten.

What’s Working For RIG?

Earlier in April, Transocean announced new contracts and extensions for ultra-deepwater drillships in Norway and Brazil, boosting its total backlog to about $1.6 billion.

The Swiss company’s acquisition of Houston-based Valaris Ltd. (VAL) in a deal valued at about $5.8 billion will result in the creation of a premier offshore driller with a 73-rig fleet, including 33 ultra-deepwater drillships, nine semisubmersibles and 31 modern jackups. Expected to close in the second half of 2026, the acquisition is expected to result in over $200 million of cost synergies, accelerated debt reduction, enhanced financial flexibility, and increased, diversified exposure to a multi-year drilling upcycle for the company.

RIG’s Valuation Concerns

However, RIG trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 30.2x, well above XOM’s 12.4x and CVX’s 12.9x multiples. Analysts estimate a 12-month price target of $5.91 for the company’s shares, indicating a downside potential of about 13.5% compared to its last close.

Retail Stance On RIG Shares

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around RIG shares stayed in the ‘bullish’ territory amid ‘high’ message volumes at the time of writing.

One user said, “Oil is a finite resource. It is also a fundamental resource. 98% of all products rely on access to oil derivatives. Long term investing in oil is a no brainer!  $400 to $500 a barrel by 2050. Hear me now believe me later.”

RIG stock has nearly tripled in value in the last one year.

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