SPCX Stock Jumps Overnight: Cursor Deal Pushes SpaceX Deeper Into 'Most Expensive' Territory, Morningstar Says

• SPCX surged 5% Tuesday, extending gains to 50% above its $135 IPO price and pushing its market cap to $2.642 trillion.
• At current prices, SPCX trades at about 3.2x Morningstar's fair value and ranks among the most expensive stocks in the firm's coverage universe.
• Nearly one million SPCX call options traded on day one as traders placed aggressive bets on further upside.

Shares of SpaceX (SPCX) are now worth $2.642 trillion, nearly as much as Amazon (AMZN), after a post-IPO surge and a $60 billion bet on AI coding startup Cursor. However, Morningstar says that the company's fundamentals haven't kept pace, cutting its fair value estimate and calling it one of the most expensive stocks it covers.

SPCX stock jumped 5% on Tuesday to end at $201.8, extending gains to almost 50% above the company's $135 IPO price just three trading days after its Nasdaq debut. Shares are also up 2% overnight late Tuesday. 

Bulls were rewarded as the Leverage Shares 2X Long SPCX Daily ETF (SPCH) jumped 10%, while the bearish Leverage Shares 2X Short SPCX Daily ETF (SSPC) tumbled 10%.

Morningstar Cuts SpaceX Fair Value

SpaceX announced on Tuesday that it would acquire Anysphere, the maker of AI coding platform Cursor, in a $60 billion all-stock deal. The deal gives SpaceX a stronger foothold in enterprise AI software and expands its AI ambitions following its earlier acquisition of xAI.

Morningstar lowered its fair value estimate for SpaceX to $62 per share from $63 following the Cursor acquisition, citing the impact of the $60 billion all-stock deal, while pushing an already richly valued stock further into expensive territory. Morningstar's $62 fair value estimate implies a 69% downside from current leaves, leaving SpaceX trading at about 3.2x the analyst's valuation. 

SPCX Rally Leaves AVGO, AMZN In The Dust

The post-IPO rally has turned SpaceX into the sixth-largest public company in the U.S., with a market cap approaching Amazon's, which stands at $2.646 trillion. Yet the gap between valuation and revenue remains huge. SpaceX generated $18.7 billion in revenue in 2025 and Morningstar expects that figure to grow to $36.8 billion in 2026. Even then, the research firm noted that the company would only match Micron Technology's (MU) revenue from last year, while Amazon generated over 19x as much.

SpaceX trades at 141x 2025 sales and nearly 78x projected 2026 sales, which is over 3x Broadcom's (AVGO) multiple and 26x Amazon's. Since SpaceX remains unprofitable, traditional earnings-based valuation metrics based on earnings cannot yet be applied, Morningstar said. 

Morningstar Gives SPCX 'Benefit Of The Doubt'

Morningstar's skepticism is not rooted in disbelief about SpaceX's ambitions. "Our valuation is the result of mathematics more than skepticism," the research firm said last week, when it assigned a fair value of $63. "Even at $63 per share, we give SpaceX a lot of benefit of the doubt," Morningstar said. 

Morningstar's model assumes SpaceX eventually develops a rapidly reusable Starship capable of multiple launches per week and successfully commercializes orbital AI data centers. However, the research firm cautioned: "Neither of these engineering problems has been solved, and we don't expect them to be until at least 2028." The firm's most optimistic "Moonshot" scenario values SpaceX at $154 per share, but Morningstar assigns only a 7% probability to that outcome.

Bulls Pile Into SPCX Calls

Despite valuation concerns, investor enthusiasm for SPCX remains strong. On the first day of SPCX options trading, nearly one million call contracts changed hands, making SpaceX one of the most actively traded options names in the market. "The volume is even more notable because weekly options have not been listed yet," Chris Murphy, co-head of derivatives strategy at Susquehanna Investment Group told MarketWatch.

Among the bullish wagers were purchases of 1,500 July $300 call options and 6,500 July $325 call options, bets that SpaceX shares could surge well above their current price by next month. 

The next major catalyst may arrive in late July or early August when SpaceX reports its first earnings as a public company. After the report, pre-IPO investors will be allowed to sell shares equivalent to 7% of outstanding stock, which is more than the amount sold in the IPO itself.

How Do Retail Traders Feel About SPCX?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for SPCX was ‘extremely bullish’ amid an eye-watering 407,767% surge in message volumes over the past week.

One user said, “$SPCX this is being held up by pure fomo. Should be below 200 soon.”

Another user said, “Elon does not understand you cannot buy your way to good AI, Zuck already learned this, Cursor acquisition will do nothing for them.”

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