Tesla Bull Case ‘Unraveling in Real Time’? Analyst Says SpaceX Tie-Up Could Leave Trillions Of FSD, Optimus Value ‘On the Table’

• Tesla's premium valuation has long been tied to expectations that its Full Self-Driving software and Optimus humanoid robots could one day create trillions of dollars in value. 
• Tesla’s merger with SpaceX would imply Elon Musk does not believe FSD and Optimus are worth trillions, the analyst wrote.
• Earlier today, Jefferies said that Tesla’s stock may increasingly trade as a proxy for SpaceX if the merger happens.

Tesla (TSLA) shares fell in premarket trading on Tuesday as a fresh debate on Wall Street emerged over what a potential merger with newly listed Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX) could mean for the electric vehicle maker's valuation. 

One prominent bear is making the case that such a deal would cast doubt on the trillion-dollar potential often ascribed to Tesla’s Full Self-Driving and Optimus initiatives, suggesting Elon Musk may not view those technologies as valuable enough to stand on their own.

“The Tesla bull case appears to be unraveling in real time. A merger with $SPCX would imply Elon Musk does NOT believe FSD/Optimus is worth trillions as all that value would be left ‘on the table,” GLJ Research analyst Gordon Johnson said on X on Tuesday.

TSLA stock was down more than 3% in pre-market trading on Tuesday. 

Jefferies Says Tesla Could Act As Proxy To SpaceX

This comes after Jefferies lowered its price target on Tesla to $375, warning that growing expectations of a future merger with SpaceX could shift investor focus away from Tesla’s core business.

The firm said Tesla stock may increasingly trade as a proxy for SpaceX, with movements driven by speculation over SpaceX’s valuation and any potential merger terms. Jefferies also argued that Tesla’s valuation remains out of sync with its financial outlook.

Additionally, the brokerage cautioned that the rollout of robotaxis and Optimus robots could initially weigh on profitability, as both businesses are likely to operate at a loss in their early stages.

The Bull Case

Earlier this month, SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell gave the rumors a boost after highlighting the synergies between the two companies

“There’s no question that there are synergies between Tesla and SpaceX and our futures. There’s a convergence of what we’re all trying to accomplish in the future,” Shotwell said in an interview with CNBC.

Meanwhile, Dan Ives said he would be “shocked” if the SpaceX-Tesla merger does not happen over the next year.

“When I look out over the next year, I continue to view that… I would be shocked if it doesn’t happen, just given the synergies, given the cross-pollination, and also for Musk himself, I think it makes the most sense to have all that AI technology under one hood, especially given the controlling nature of SpaceX,” Ives said in an interview with CNBC.

Retail’s Take On TSLA Stock

Retail sentiment surrounding TSLA has remained ‘extremely bearish’ over the past 24 hours on Stocktwits.

One user said if the merger happens, “their market cap will be several trillions and no one will even come close.”

TSLA shares have declined more than 13% so far this year.

Read also: Nasdaq, S&P 500, Dow Futures Crack On Tech, SpaceX Selloff: Why SPCX, TSLA, INFQ, MU, HOOD, ADTX Are In Focus

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