Tesla Stock Rises Premarket: All Eyes On Q1 Delivery Print As Investors Look For Signs Of Break In 2-Year Delivery Slump

• TSLA has logged its worst quarter in a year and is down 17% so far this year, the second-weakest performer among the Magnificent Seven after Microsoft.
• Tesla researcher Troy Teslike estimates 375,000 Q1 deliveries, above the Tesla-compiled analyst consensus of 365,645 vehicles.
• Consensus estimates imply a 13% quarter-over-quarter decline in total Q1 deliveries, mirroring last year's first-quarter decline pattern.

Shares of Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) rose 2% in premarket trading on Wednesday as investors turned their focus to the company’s upcoming delivery report due Thursday, which could offer the clearest signal yet on whether the EV maker’s two-year delivery slowdown is beginning to stabilize.

TSLA stock has logged its worst quarter in a year and has declined 17% year-to-date, ranking as the second-worst performer among the “Magnificent Seven” stocks right after Microsoft. 

Troy Teslike Estimate Tops Tesla-Compiled Analyst Forecast

Tesla researcher Troy Teslike estimated on X that Tesla delivered about 375,000 vehicles in the first quarter (Q1), exceeding the company-compiled Wall Street consensus estimate of 365,645 vehicles, based on submissions from 23 sell-side analysts. 

Tesla delivered 336,681 vehicles in the first quarter of 2025, which Teslike called “unusually low because of the Model Y Juniper transition.” 

Model 3, Model Y Expected To Drive Tesla Q1 Deliveries

Both Teslike and sell-side estimates show that Model 3 and Model Y are expected to account for the bulk of Tesla’s deliveries in the quarter.

Teslike projected 359,251 Model 3 and Model Y deliveries, compared with 351,179 vehicles in Tesla’s company-compiled consensus. Deliveries from other vehicles, including Model S, Model X, and Cybertruck, are expected to total 15,749 units under Teslike’s estimate and 13,946 units under the Wall Street consensus.

He also estimated that Tesla produced about 400,719 vehicles during the quarter, including 385,890 Model 3 and Model Y units.

Tesla’s company-compiled consensus shows Model 3 and Model Y deliveries of 351,179 vehicles out of 365,645 total deliveries expected for the quarter, while Troy Teslike estimates 359,251 vehicles from those models out of 375,000 total deliveries.

Meanwhile, deliveries of higher-end vehicles, including Model S, Model X and Cybertruck, totaled 11,642 units in the fourth quarter of 2025, compared with expectations of 13,946 vehicles under Tesla’s company-compiled consensus and 15,749 vehicles under Teslike’s estimate, implying quarter-over-quarter increases of roughly 19.8% and 35.3%, respectively. 

Analysts See Tesla Deliveries Rebounding In 2026

Tesla delivered 418,227 vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2025, implying a 13% quarter-over-quarter decline if the company reports in line with consensus estimates. This follows a 15.6% drop between the third and fourth quarters of 2025, when deliveries fell from 495,570 vehicles to 418,227 vehicles. A similar pattern appeared last year, when Tesla’s first-quarter 2025 deliveries declined about 13% from the prior quarter.

Tesla delivered 1.64 million vehicles in 2025, while Tesla’s company-compiled analyst consensus currently projects 1.68 million deliveries for 2026. This would represent a return to annual growth if achieved. Based on these estimates, the first quarter is expected to account for about 21.6% of the company’s full-year deliveries.

Tesla’s First Delivery Print Since Model S, X Exit

The latest quarter also marks the first quarter following Tesla’s decision to end production of its Model S sedan and Model X SUV as manufacturing capacity at its Fremont facility shifts toward the Optimus humanoid robot.

CEO Elon Musk said on X that custom orders for the vehicles had ended and only inventory remained available. “We will have an official ceremony to mark the ending of an era. I love those cars,” Musk added.

How Do Retail Traders Feel About TSLA?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment has hovered around the ‘bearish’ and ‘extremely bearish’ zones over the past quarter amid over a 300% surge in message volumes over the same period. 

One user expects TSLA stock to rise 15% after the quarterly report, saying “Deliveries will rock to the upside.”

Another user remained cautiously optimistic, saying, “Longs, we are still walking through a mine field. We have to pass through delivery report and earnings.” 

For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.

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