Tesla Stock Rides SpaceX Hype: Trump Floats $20B Lunar Push, Musk Eyes 'Major' Moon Base

• NASA unveiled fresh details around its $20 billion Moon Base initiative, targeting a permanent lunar presence by 2032.
• SpaceX remains central to NASA’s Artemis Moon plans through its Starship Human Landing System contract awarded in 2021.
• Musk has apparently discussed a potential Tesla-SpaceX merger internally, as ties among Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI continue to deepen under the newly branded “SpaceXAI.”

Shares of Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) are headed toward their best month since September as investors bet that Elon Musk’s sprawling AI and space empire could benefit from NASA’s expanding Moon Base ambitions and growing SpaceX merger chatter.

TSLA stock jumped nearly 2% on Tuesday, logging its fourth straight session of gains. 

NASA’s $20B Moon Base Push

Late Tuesday, NASA unveiled fresh details around its Moon Base initiative, which aims to establish a permanent human presence near the Moon’s south pole by 2032 as the U.S. races China in the next era of space exploration. The program includes robotic landers, hopping drones, autonomous rovers, cargo systems, nuclear and solar-powered infrastructure and eventually semi-permanent lunar housing for astronauts.

NASA outlined a three-phase strategy involving up to 25 missions before 2029, ahead of future Artemis astronaut landings. The agency also said the effort is backed by President Donald Trump’s administration as the U.S. attempts to land astronauts on the Moon before Trump leaves office in 2029.

NASA separately announced new contracts involving Blue Origin, Intuitive Machines, Astrobotic, Astrolab and Lunar Outpost for lunar landers, robotic systems and mobility vehicles. Meanwhile, SpaceX remains key to NASA’s broader lunar ambitions through its 2021 Artemis Human Landing System contract, under which the company’s Starship vehicle will transport astronauts and cargo to the lunar surface and help build the infrastructure needed for a long-term Moon base.

Musk All In For ‘Major Base’ On The Moon

Musk quickly amplified investor enthusiasm after NASA’s announcements. “Time to build a major base on the Moon!” Musk said on X. In another post, Musk said lunar and Martian colonization was essential to humanity’s survival.

“What matters is securing the long-term future of consciousness, both on Earth and other heavenly bodies,” Musk said. “We cannot just focus on Earth, because there are irreducible external and internal cataclysmic risks.”

Musk added that both the Moon and Mars ultimately need “self-growing civilizations” and called making that happen “the prime directive of SpaceX.” 

According to SpaceX, Starship can deliver astronauts, habitats, rovers and more than 100 tons of cargo directly to the lunar surface using reusable launch systems and in-space refueling tech. The company has already begun marketing future Starship cargo and lunar missions commercially, including lunar cargo flights expected to begin no earlier than 2028.

Starship V3 Test Fuels SpaceX IPO Talks

Investor optimism was also boosted when SpaceX recently completed a largely successful Starship V3 test flight involving mock satellite deployments and a controlled splashdown in the Indian Ocean. The test flight marked a major milestone for the upgraded Starship platform after years of delays, failed launches and several setbacks.

During the mission, SpaceX successfully deployed mock Starlink satellites, executed atmospheric re-entry maneuvers and completed a controlled descent before the vehicle exploded after splashdown. The launch comes just weeks ahead of SpaceX’s expected IPO, which could become the largest public listing in history and potentially value the company at around $1.75 trillion.

The IPO excitement has further fueled speculation that Musk could eventually combine Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI into a broader interconnected AI and infrastructure conglomerate.

Tesla-SpaceX Merger Buzz Builds

Elon Musk has reportedly discussed internally the possibility of eventually merging Tesla and SpaceX as operational ties between Tesla, SpaceX and xAI continue deepening, CNBC reported. According to the report, employees across Musk’s companies have long openly discussed the possibility of some form of combination, while the businesses increasingly share AI infrastructure, engineering resources, compute capabilities and large-scale AI-related capital spending. 

In its IPO filing, SpaceX said that it has purchased hundreds of millions of dollars' worth of Tesla Megapack battery systems and Cybertrucks. Merger speculation also increased last week after Musk appeared to cautiously sidestep questions surrounding a potential Tesla-SpaceX merger during a Forbes interview.

When asked whether he could eventually see “putting these companies together and just running one big company,” Musk responded: “Well, it'd be difficult for me to sort of comment on that, you know, because, you know, there's publicly traded companies, and they're publicly traded on ones, you know, about to be.”

Moments later, when asked about reports surrounding a possible SpaceX S-1 filing, Musk added, “I think I'm not allowed to comment on these things. It's like a quiet period or something to that effect.” SpaceX acquired xAI earlier this year in an all-stock deal, valuing the combined entity at $1.25 trillion. Musk has since rebranded the combined entity as “SpaceXAI.” 

Musk Defends xAI Against OpenAI, Anthropic

Musk also defended xAI’s position on X in the heated AI race against OpenAI and Anthropic. Responding to XPrize Foundation founder Peter Diamandis’ argument that controlling AI infrastructure may matter more than having the best chatbot model, Musk acknowledged that xAI still trails some competitors in terms of maturity.

“What you say is true, but nonetheless our AI will be great,” Musk said. “Whether it is the best remains to be seen, but I will never give up. Never.” Musk added that xAI still remains significantly younger than its rivals.

“Space(XAI) is only 3 years old. That’s half the age of Anthropic and quarter the age of OpenAI,” Musk said. “Let’s see where things stand 3 years from now.”

Musk also compared xAI’s current position to SpaceX’s early struggles. “SpaceX had achieved nothing of note after 3 years and was written off as dead after 6 years with 3 consecutive launch failures,” Musk said. “But you may have noticed that things are different now.”

How Do Retail Traders Feel About TSLA And SpaceX?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around Tesla was ‘neutral’ with ‘normal’ message volume, while sentiment around SpaceX remained ‘extremely bullish’ amid ‘high’ message volume. 

One user said, “SpaceX will probably pay a 25% premium for TSLA.  Selling TSLA to buy SPCX makes no sense.”

Another user said, “The average trader knows they are priced out of spacex ipo…so they are buying Tesla as the way in!!!”

So far this year, TSLA stock has lagged its “Magnificent Seven” peers, making it the group’s third-worst performer, down 4%.    

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