Tesla Still In ‘Supervised Autonomy,’ Says Analyst As Q3 Earnings Day Nears: ‘Shouldn’t Trade At 177x P/E’

Gary Black, managing partner at The Future Fund LLC, voiced skepticism over Tesla Inc.’s readiness for fully autonomous driving, saying the stock’s valuation remains disconnected from its technological progress ahead of next week’s third-quarter results.

Autonomy Concerns Still Unanswered

Black said that while investors are optimistic about Tesla’s third-quarter (Q3) earnings and annual meeting, he remains uncertain whether CEO Elon Musk will address when the safety monitor will be removed from Tesla’s robotaxis, pointing to an essential step toward unsupervised autonomy comparable to rivals Waymo, Zoox, and Baidu.

“I know many are bulled up about $TSLA going into 3Q earnings and the annual meeting, but I’m still not certain Elon will answer the important question about when the safety monitor will come out of robotaxis to make them truly unsupervised autonomy,” Black said in a post on X. “Until that happens, TSLA is still supervised autonomy and shouldn’t trade at a 177x P/E on 2026 EPS.”

Disconnect Between Valuation And Delivery

Black also pointed to what he called a persistent disconnect between Tesla’s earnings revisions and its stock performance, signaling the market’s optimism may be ahead of the company’s operational reality.

Investor interest in Tesla’s autonomy plans is reflected in the most popular questions submitted for the company’s Q3 earnings call, according to a post on X by Tesla investor and influencer Sawyer Merritt.  Top topics include the timeline for removing safety drivers from robotaxis, expansion plans for the robotaxi fleet, and the development of new car models based on the Cybercab and Cybertruck platforms. Questions also focus on the status of Tesla’s Optimus humanoid robot, energy storage demand, and future hardware upgrades.

Black described the list of questions as “actually very good for once,” but said he expects next Wednesday’s earnings report to be a “non-catalyst.” He cited the Wall Street consensus for adjusted earnings per share (EPS) was up about $0.04 since Tesla’s Q3 deliveries were announced, with automotive gross margin excluding regulatory credits at about 15.4%. “If answered, the questions can give us a good view of the road ahead,” he said.

Stocktwits Traders Split Ahead Of Results

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for Tesla was ‘bearish’ amid ‘low’ message volume late Thursday. 

Tesla is scheduled to report Q3 earnings on Oct. 23. According to Koyfin estimates, analysts expect the electric vehicle maker to post revenue of $26.58 billion, up about 18% from $22.50 billion a year earlier. 

Analysts project EPS to rise to $0.55 from $0.40. Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) are expected to increase about 16% to $3.96 billion, while operating profit (EBIT) is forecast to jump nearly 75% to $1.61 billion, compared with $923 million in the same quarter last year.

One bearish user predicted Tesla shares could open near $413 at open on Friday. Another expressed optimism about the stock’s setup ahead of earnings, while a third suggested it could climb toward $440 in the next session.

Tesla’s stock has risen 16% so far in 2025.

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