Can Figure AI's Rumored $40B Valuation Lift Tesla? Analyst Sees A Boost Amid Improving Retail Sentiment

Tesla Inc. (TSLA) shares have struggled in 2025 as investors reassess the company's valuation, partly due to CEO Elon Musk's increasing political focus, which many believe is weighing on the company's prospects.

Musk, however, has repeatedly emphasized that Tesla should be seen not just as an electric vehicle maker but as an AI-driven robotics company at the forefront of autonomous driving. 

One Wall Street analyst sees potential in that vision — especially given the latest buzz in humanoid robotics.

According to Bloomberg, humanoid robotics startup Figure AI is in talks to raise $1.5 billion in a deal that would value the company at nearly $40 billion. 

Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas believes the development could strengthen the case for Tesla's own robotics ambitions.

"We continue to view Tesla as one of the leading enablers of humanoid robotics in the Western world and anticipate growing investor interest in TSLA's role in this potential multi-trillion TAM end-market," he said.

Jonas noted that while a successful Figure AI could create competition for Tesla, he doesn't see humanoid robotics as a "winner-take-all" market, likening it to industries like automotive and machinery.

"News of Figure's fundraising will only benefit perception around the legitimacy of this end market, providing investors another reason to consider humanoids as they contemplate the upside for TSLA shares."

Morgan Stanley maintains an 'Overweight' rating and a $430 price target on Tesla. 

Jonas said Morgan Stanely's Tesla valuation does not account for Optimus, but even minor advancements could be significant. 

He estimates that if Optimus could replace just 1% of U.S. labor in 2024, it could add approximately $100 per share to Tesla's net present value.

Retail sentiment toward Tesla is improving on Stocktwits, shifting from 'bearish' last week to 'bullish' at the end of Tuesday. 

One investor argued that Tesla's real-world AI training on data from millions of cars gives it a unique edge in autonomy, and set a personal price target of $500. 

Another believes Tesla stock could see bullish momentum once it breaks the $365 level.

During a recent earnings call, Musk called Full Self-Driving (FSD) the "largest value increase in human history" and added that Tesla would produce "hundreds of millions" of Optimus humanoid robots within a few years.

Figure AI is developing an AI-powered humanoid robot for industrial and household tasks. Its latest prototype is being tested in BMW's auto assembly operations. 

The company, whose key partners include Microsoft and Nvidia, aims to ship 100,000 robots over the next four years.

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