TSLA Stock Rises Overnight On Germany Ramp Ahead Of Q2: Analyst Sees 10% Delivery Jump This Year, Improving Margins

• The German plant targets up to 7,500 vehicles a week, or about 375,000 annually.
• Tesla also plans to expand battery output and add 3,500 jobs.
• Morningstar expects 2026 deliveries to grow 10% to nearly 1.8 million vehicles.

Shares of Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) rose 0.3% overnight late Sunday as its German factory geared up for a production surge, while Morningstar pointed to a 10% delivery rebound and better margins in 2026.

TSLA stock fell 3% on Friday to close at $380.84, capping its worst weekly run in more than a month. 

Tesla Expands Germany Production 

Tesla expects “a significantly higher production volume” at its Grunheide plant this year as Model Y demand improves. The factory, which supplies more than 30 markets, is targeting output of up to 7,500 vehicles a week, or 375,000 annually. Tesla also plans to expand battery production, with the broader push expected to create about 3,500 jobs, Bloomberg noted.

The ramp comes after fresh hiring and a recovery in European registrations after two years of declining sales. Since Grunheide builds only the Model Y, stronger demand feeds directly into factory utilization.

TSLA Q2 Earnings Preview

Tesla reports second-quarter (Q2) results after the market close on Wednesday, with expectations of stronger top- and bottom-line results. Morningstar raised its fair value estimate for Tesla to $450 from $425, implying an 18% upside from Friday’s current levels. The firm rates the stock ‘3-star’, with a ‘Narrow’ moat and ‘Very High’ uncertainty. Morningstar expects Tesla deliveries to rise about 10% in 2026 to nearly 1.8 million vehicles, up from 1.64 million last year. It said the higher forecast should drive “higher automotive gross profit margins,” with margins, excluding regulatory credits, expected to be in the high teens.

Lower-priced versions of the Model Y and Model 3 are expected to support growth, partly offsetting weaker U.S. demand following the expiration of the federal EV tax credit.

According to Koyfin, analysts expect revenue of $26.36 billion, up 18% from $22.39 a quarter ago. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) is projected to rise 31% to $0.54, while earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) is expected to increase 8% to $3.97 billion.

Tesla’s AI Spending Raises Risks 

Morningstar said Tesla posted “strong delivery growth” during the quarter, shifting attention to margins, free cash flow and capital spending. Investors will also look for updates on the Cybercab, robotaxi expansion, Full Self-Driving version (FSD) 15 and Optimus, which Morningstar called a “large long-term growth driver.” The firm said Tesla is in “excellent financial health,” with $44.7 billion in cash, equivalents and investments as of March 31. However, its ‘Very High’ uncertainty rating is due to intense EV competition, potential price cuts, and heavy spending on AI, autonomous driving, and humanoid robots.

How Do Retail Traders Feel About TSLA?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for TSLA has been ‘bullish’ over the past week amid a 31% rise in 24-hour message volumes.

One user said, “$TSLA Hopefully Elon & the Tesla board are smart enough to not raise capex on Wednesday… very likely to see a 2022 meta-esque crash if they’re insane enough to do so.”

Another user said, “$TSLA Expecting 450-500 into/post earnings, then a sell off.”

So far this year, Tesla's stock has lagged its "Magnificent Seven" peers, making it the group's second-worst performer, down 15%. 

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