TSLA Stock Climbs Premarket, But Gary Black Says Rising Oil, Bond Yields Make NVDA, GOOG, META Cheaper Bets

• Black said Tesla’s high valuation makes the stock more vulnerable to rising interest rates.
• Oil prices and global bond yields have surged amid concerns about inflation stemming from the prolonged U.S.-Iran conflict.
• Investor excitement around SpaceX’s expected IPO has also influenced Tesla sentiment.

Shares of Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) rose 1% in premarket trading on Wednesday, even as longtime Tesla bull Gary Black warned that rising oil prices and surging bond yields could continue to pressure Tesla’s elevated valuation relative to megacap peers like Nvidia, Alphabet, Meta Platforms and Amazon.

TSLA stock fell more than 1% on Tuesday, closing at $404.11.

Gary Black: NVDA, GOOG, META, AMZN Look Safer Than TSLA

“There’s been no change in TSLA fundamentals but that’s the point,” Black said on X. He also said: “When long-term int rates go higher, long duration (high P/E names) get whacked the most mathematically.”

Black warned Tesla stock could continue moving lower if Brent crude remains near $110 per barrel and U.S. 10-year Treasury yields stay around 4.6%. The investor pointed to Tesla trading at 211 times its estimated 2026 earnings with a forward price-to-earnings growth (EPG) ratio of 6x. On the other hand, Nvidia traded at a 1.8x forward PEG ratio, Alphabet at 1.5x, Meta at 1.2x and Amazon at 1.6x.

Black said that investors seeking to avoid “duration risk” may increasingly favor cheaper megacap growth stocks over Tesla as inflation expectations and yields rise.

Oil, Yields And Inflation Weigh On TSLA

Black’s comments come as both oil prices and global bond yields continue climbing amid mounting inflation risks from the prolonged U.S.-Iran conflict. Brent crude traded at $110 per barrel after surging 50% since the war began as disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz fueled fears of tighter global energy supplies.

Meanwhile, U.S. 30-year Treasury yields recently climbed above 5.2%, their highest levels since 2007, while U.S. 10-year Treasury yields moved well above 4.5%. Higher yields typically compress valuations for high-growth companies whose earnings are expected far into the future. 

Tesla Bulls Focus On SpaceX IPO Catalyst

Speculation surrounding SpaceX’s expected IPO has also become an increasingly important factor influencing Tesla sentiment as investors attempt to value Elon Musk’s broader ecosystem of AI, robotics, satellite and autonomous-driving businesses.

SpaceX is reportedly seeking a valuation above $2 trillion, aiming to raise as much as $75 billion in potentially the largest IPO in Wall Street history, easily surpassing Saudi Aramco’s record $29.4 billion public offering in 2019. 

Musk recently referenced a “quiet period” when asked during a Forbes interview whether reports about a SpaceX S-1 filing were accurate. Musk also hinted at a potential SpaceX-Tesla merger saying: “there's publicly traded companies, and they're publicly traded on ones, you know, about to be.”

The Tesla and SpaceX CEO has also blurred the lines across his companies after SpaceX merged with xAI earlier this year in a deal valuing the business at $1.25 trillion. Since then, Musk rebranded the combined entity as “SpaceXAI.” 

Tesla Bets On AI, Robotics Future

Tesla’s premium valuation has been based on Musk’s efforts to reposition the company as an AI, robotics and autonomous infrastructure platform rather than simply an EV manufacturer. In the company’s recent earnings call, Tesla disclosed plans to spend over $25 billion in capex this year as it accelerates investments for Optimus humanoid robots, AI infrastructure, autonomous Cybercab production and other robotics initiatives.

Tesla also agreed to acquire an unidentified AI hardware company for up to $2 billion in stock and equity awards to drive its AI infrastructure ambitions. Despite the growing AI narrative, Tesla’s core automotive business continues facing pressure from slowing EV demand, intensifying competition and rising input costs.

Tesla recently raised prices on higher-end Model Y trims in the U.S. by $500 to $1,000, marking the first U.S. Model Y increase since 2024. Meanwhile, U.S. EV sales dropped 27% from the previous year in the first quarter, while Tesla’s automotive gross margin excluding regulatory credits stood at 21%, up from 14% a year earlier but still well below its 2022 peak around 32%.

Tesla’s first-quarter vehicle deliveries marked the company’s second-worst quarter since mid-2022 after the automaker dealt with Model Y production changes and backlash from Musk’s political activities.

How Do Retail Traders Feel About TSLA?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for TSLA was ‘bearish’ amid a 283% surge in message volumes over the past month.

One user said, “Congratulations if you bought this 4 years ago betting on taxis and robots… your total gains: 0%”

Another user said, “Sales of Tesla vehicles are declining at an alarming rate and account over 70% Tesla revenues. Better get those robots and robotaxi's going asap, or you could see this under $300 in the coming month or two.”

So far this year, TSLA stock has lagged its “Magnificent Seven” peers, making it the group’s second-worst performer, with a 10% decline.     

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