TSLA Stock In Focus: Margins, Robotaxis, Capex — What Gene Munster Is Watching Ahead Of Tesla Earnings Call

• Munster anticipates the company will guide to a capex figure above $25 billion for the full year. 
• On the Cybercab robotaxi vehicle, Munster expects Elon Musk to shift the production ramp target from late 2026 to the first half of 2027.
• For the Optimus humanoid robot, Munster anticipated limited new details in the earnings update.

As Tesla (TSLA) prepares to release its second-quarter 2026 financial results after U.S. markets close on Wednesday, analyst Gene Munster believes investors are looking to scrutinize select aspects, including automotive profitability, delivery trends, capital spending and progress in autonomy and robotics initiatives.

Shares of Tesla traded 1% lower at the time of writing.

Capital Expenditures And AI Spending

Capex remains a focal point after Tesla raised its 2026 guidance to around $25 billion during the first-quarter earnings call in April, up from a prior target of more than $20 billion.

Munster, managing partner at Deepwater Asset Management, flagged this as a potential negative wildcard. He anticipates the company will guide to a figure above $25 billion for the full year and offer indications that 2027 spending will exceed Street estimates, currently around $21 billion.

Automotive Margins

Wall Street consensus anticipates automotive gross margins, excluding regulatory credits, around 18.5%. Munster expects Tesla to slightly exceed that figure, citing strong volumes. He referenced the 19.2% margin achieved in the March quarter and suggested margins could remain relatively stable sequentially.

Autonomy And Robotaxi Progress

Munster also highlighted the recent expansion of Tesla’s unsupervised Robotaxi service. In July, the company added three cities and now operates small fleets across seven locations. Tesla has indicated two additional cities are forthcoming. Munster expects three more cities by year-end, bringing the total to 10—above the Street’s projected 2–3 additions.

Full Self-Driving (FSD) Adoption

Munster projected continued subscriber growth for paid FSD. Active paid subscriptions grew 51% year-over-year to 1.28 million in March quarter; he expects approximately 40% growth in June quarter. Strong June vehicle sales should support further acceleration in the September quarter, he said.

Cybercab And Optimus Timelines

On the Cybercab robotaxi vehicle, Munster expects Elon Musk to shift the production ramp target from late 2026 to the first half of 2027. He noted that investors have largely priced in some delay.

For the Optimus humanoid robot, Munster anticipated limited new details in the earnings update but reiterated his long-term view that the project could represent more than half of Tesla’s sales by 2040.

Munster also added that he sees an 80% probability that SpaceX would acquire Tesla within the next five years, though he stated no updates on the topic are expected during tonight’s call.

Wall Street Earnings Estimates

According to Tesla’s company-compiled consensus estimates, Wall Street expects the company to report total Q2 revenue of about $27.58 billion, marking a year-on-year jump of about 23%, and adjusted earnings per share of $0.55, higher than the $0.40 reported in Q2 2025.

How Did TSLA Retail Traders React?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around TSLA stock jumped from ‘bullish’ to ‘extremely bullish’ territory over the past 24 hours, while message volume remained at ‘normal’ levels.

TSLA stock has fallen 17% year-to-date.

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