US Shale Output Will Flatten If Oil Prices Stay Near Current Levels, Says ConocoPhillips CEO Ryan Lance

ConocoPhillips CEO Ryan Lance reportedly said on Tuesday that U.S. Shale output is likely to flatten if oil prices stay near their current levels and will fall when prices hit the $50s per barrel.

"The breakeven probably hasn't moved a lot," Lance stated at the Qatar Economic Forum in Doha, according to a Reuters report.

"I think long-term, if you're going to see oil prices in a comfortable range - maybe in the 70s, or 65-75, we'll still see continued modest growth out of the U.S.”.

Lance also said that he sees plateauing production, probably at the end of this decade, coming out of the U.S., unless there is another technological breakthrough in the business. “And don't bet against our industry,” he said.

Crude prices have declined this year, especially after U.S. President Donald Trump announced the April 2 ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs. Notably, Brent and WTI futures haven’t climbed back to the $80 mark since the beginning of January.

On Tuesday morning, Brent futures maturing in July 2025 traded 0.44% lower at $65.26 while WTI futures maturing in June 2025 fell 0.26% to $62.53.

Lance also stated that the LNG market will grow to over 700 million tons from nearly 400 million tons over the next decade or so. He pointed out that the market was growing at an annual compound growth rate of 1%- 2%.

"It's going to take a lot of growth. It's going to take growth in Qatar, it's going to take growth in the United States, the two biggest suppliers in the world, to satisfy the enormous amount of energy growth that's coming," Lance said.

The United States Oil Fund LP (USO) traded 0.18% higher on Tuesday morning while ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil (UCO) rose 0.37%.

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